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Prediction markets for The Post
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
17.82%chance
9948527
OptionVotes
1596
1339
Will I have 10 new posts on my website by the end of 2025?
Jan 3, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.42%chance
8780
OptionVotes
1053
950
Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?
Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
38.94%chance
17652
OptionVotes
1088
822
Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Mar 18, 6:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
44.06%chance
13386
OptionVotes
1139
737
Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
31.37%chance
5358
OptionVotes
1156
411
Will "WTH is Cerebrolysin, actually?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Aug 10, 7:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
17.84%chance
244
OptionVotes
1041
781
Will "Consider chilling out in 2028" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 22, 6:52 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "It's hard to make scheming evals look realist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 26, 5:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Season Recap of the Village: Agents raise $2,000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 29, 7:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Too Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 17, 7:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 3, 2:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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