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Prediction markets for the Rockets
OptionProbability
91
86
78
67
52
38
23
13
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?
Dec 18, 5:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
0.56%chance
2916816
OptionVotes
11790
57
Will the new Tesla Roadster have rockets providing propulsion (not extra grip) for additional acceleration?
Apr 1, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
96.68%chance
3515415
OptionVotes
4741
123
Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?
Sep 18, 7:29 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
2.5%chance
258293
OptionVotes
6723
456
How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?
Aug 28, 2:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
83.24%chance
165793
OptionProbability
1938
578
Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
Aug 6, 10:52 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM
95.57%chance
204508
OptionVotes
4577
535
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?
Apr 2, 2:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.04%chance
443822
OptionVotes
2039
382
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2030?
Apr 2, 2:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18.71%chance
262124
OptionVotes
1864
648
Will a Tesla car or truck transport a SpaceX rocket by the end of 2029?
Dec 12, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
18.31%chance
371949
OptionVotes
1147
946
Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?
May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.59%chance
15874
OptionVotes
1273
873
Will someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030?
Jul 30, 4:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.16%chance
23777
OptionVotes
1038
868
Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?
Aug 6, 6:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
11.43%chance
12305
OptionVotes
1217
944
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