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Prediction markets for Third Way
OptionVotes
4816
208
OptionVotes
3779
265
Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?
Oct 3, 4:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
11.23%chance
362930
OptionVotes
2811
356
OptionVotes
1771
565
OptionVotes
1141
846
Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?
May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
74.23%chance
181680
OptionVotes
1697
589
OptionVotes
1096
774
Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?
Sep 15, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
68.77%chance
71150
OptionVotes
1484
674
Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?
Jun 12, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.96%chance
61150
OptionVotes
1563
640
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
46.88%chance
7345
OptionVotes
1064
939
Will the latest flagship reMarkable tablet and software remain highly customizable through 2025?
Feb 5, 11:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
81.95%chance
12303
OptionVotes
1123
950
Will the title of Taylor Swift's 13th studio album have or reference the number 13?
Feb 22, 5:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
48.2%chance
11209
OptionVotes
1006
990
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