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Top stories

Microsoft Warns Secret Blizzard Hijacks Russian ISPs to Spy on Moscow Embassies

Microsoft Warns Secret Blizzard Hijacks Russian ISPs to Spy on Moscow Embassies

Authors

17

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Threat Intelligence

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

891

Will AI wipe out cows before the year 2030?

Jul 3, 4:39 PMJan 2, 1:00 AM

2.25%chance

4810735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2965

884

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.68%chance

404470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

823

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.89%chance

253665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

810

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?

Jun 6, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.94%chance

253648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2472

405

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.53%chance

25694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

900

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6693

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Finland

Other

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

79

7

6

3

3

3

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.26%chance

16500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

975

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the signatories of the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:06 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2280

OptionProbability

Other

Geoffrey Hinton

Sam Altman

Stuart Russell

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Demis Hassabis

David Chalmers

Max Tegmark

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Toby Ord

Ray Kurzweil

50

41

41

34

24

24

20

20

20

17

11

10

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 31, 2025
Jul 31, 2025
Russia
Infosec
Tech
Microsoft Warns Secret Blizzard Hijacks Russian ISPs to Spy on Moscow Embassies
Authors
17
2 days ago

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