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Prediction markets for Threat Intelligence
Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?
Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM
4.18%chance
5112040
OptionVotes
2190
891
OptionVotes
2965
884
Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?
Jan 14, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.25%chance
339086
OptionVotes
6211
785
OptionVotes
2710
623
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.68%chance
404470
OptionVotes
984
823
OptionVotes
1905
810
OptionVotes
2472
405
OptionVotes
1008
992
Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025?
Aug 17, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
72.53%chance
25694
OptionVotes
1206
900
Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?
Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.26%chance
16500
OptionVotes
995
975
Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?
Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
44.93%chance
7176
OptionVotes
1107
903
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
May 16, 7:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
23.65%chance
595
OptionVotes
180
56