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NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

10 months ago

NYT Tones Down Warning on RFK Jr.-Backed Push-Up Challenge

Health

Politics

Science

NYT Tones Down Warning on RFK Jr.-Backed Push-Up Challenge

10 months ago

Economists Warn Reeves’ UK Debt Path Risks 1976-Style IMF Bailout

Britain

Economics

Business

Economists Warn Reeves’ UK Debt Path Risks 1976-Style IMF Bailout

10 months ago

US Legislation

US Judiciary

US Domestic Policy

NYT Essay Urging Senate, Electoral College Overhaul Sparks Conservative Furor

10 months ago

When will Trump serve time?

Jun 29, 9:56 PMDec 1, 11:03 PM

25861924446

OptionProbability

Never

2029

2030s

2023 (NO)

2024 (NO)

2025 (NO)

2026

2027

2028

2040s or later

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

15.72%chance

421231457

OptionVotes

YES

4820

1095

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

204137702

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Zohran Mamdani

Elon Musk

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Xi Jinping

Marco Rubio

James Talarico

Sam Altman

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Dario Amodei

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Graham Platner

Jon Ossoff

Bad Bunny

Pete Hegseth

Gavin Newsom

AOC

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Claudia Sheinbaum

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

Kevin Warsh

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.59%chance

6524407

OptionVotes

YES

1425

992

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.13%chance

810234

OptionVotes

YES

20206

7879

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

YES

10938

8979

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

May 10, 8:44 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

34.17%chance

508601

OptionVotes

YES

8297

4353

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.46%chance

257454

OptionVotes

YES

15108

6619

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.54%chance

192063

OptionVotes

YES

800

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.74%chance

41826

OptionVotes

YES

7692

5323

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

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When will Trump serve time?

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

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