Times News

NYT Gaza Child Story Sparks Backlash Over Late Correction

3 days ago

Amazon to Pay New York Times Up to $25 Million a Year for AI Use

AI Modeling

AI Products

Amazon to Pay New York Times Up to $25 Million a Year for AI Use

3 days ago

US Domestic Policy

Politics

Trump Administration Prepares Overhaul of H-1B Visa and Citizenship Test

8 days ago

When will Trump serve time?

Jun 29, 9:56 PMDec 1, 11:03 PM

25391789324

OptionProbability

Never

2029

2030s

2025

2023 (NO)

2024

2026

2027

2028

2040s or later

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Dec 6, 1:02 PMDec 11, 7:59 AM

527217620

OptionProbability

Robert Prevost / Pope Leo XIV

Other

[Any variation of Artificial Intelligence]

Benjamin Netanyahu

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Zohran Mamdani

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Xi Jinping

Vladimir Putin

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Beyonce

Gavin Newsom

AOC

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

7.94%chance

398208033

OptionVotes

YES

7364

773

How much time will Tetra spend in each city in 2025?

Aug 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

531466

OptionProbability

London

Other

Osaka / Kyoto

Portland

Seattle

San Francisco

Boston

New York

Tokyo

Middlesbrough

Washington

Taipei

Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?

Apr 13, 1:30 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

3028933

OptionProbability

>=16 hours

4 to 6 hours

8 to 16 hours

6 to 8 hours

2 to 4 hours

<2 hours

GPT-5's 50% time horizon, per METR

Jul 29, 8:35 PMAug 29, 8:27 PM

6026011

OptionProbability

2.5h - 3h

2h - 2.5h

3h - 3.5h

1.5h - 2h

3.5h - 4h

4h - 5h

<1.5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.18%chance

710104

OptionVotes

YES

20076

7889

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.76%chance

419642

OptionVotes

YES

11501

8468

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.33%chance

146906

OptionVotes

YES

14718

5388

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192825

OptionVotes

YES

12162

8222

What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time?

Dec 20, 3:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.24%chance

3507

OptionVotes

YES

5351

4368

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When will Trump serve time?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

How much time will Tetra spend in each city in 2025?

Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?

GPT-5's 50% time horizon, per METR

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time?

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