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Prediction markets for Times
OptionProbability
91
5
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
5179
1032
OptionProbability
29
22
11
10
6
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1391
1024
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.63%chance
7921645
OptionVotes
2729
2049
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.49%chance
3221616
OptionVotes
29219
3422
Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM
7.13%chance
810234
OptionVotes
20206
7879
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4410157
OptionVotes
10938
8979
SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.
Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.26%chance
346935
OptionVotes
5447
184
OptionVotes
900
11
Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?
Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM
18.23%chance
42026
OptionVotes
7892
5278
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25
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