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Top stories

Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase

Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase

Authors

14

1 year ago

Prediction markets for TO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.99%chance

461413839572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23958

18853

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1741497015

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

Saikat Chakrabarti

London Breed

Other

64

36

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

642683358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5223

5020

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.37%chance

326670197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2774

2316

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69104

9470

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

375291744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2998

926

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.71%chance

526216469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11814

5864

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50148046

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Virtually impossible

46

27

20

7

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2739

903

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

52%chance

216112938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

1302

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

35.86%chance

8033375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1405

569

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

28.93%chance

313121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1570

639

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Fintech
Blockchains
Tech
Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase
Authors
14
1 year ago

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