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Top stories

Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase

Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase

Authors

14

1 year ago

Prediction markets for TO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.71%chance

475814557093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22541

18234

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85%chance

1821110393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

797

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5791

4783

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

328673400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2756

2354

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89%chance

530230132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12091

5829

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

15%chance

405215507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3087

1013

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50148055

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Virtually impossible

46

27

20

7

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.56%chance

88132423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2680

916

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.86%chance

218113073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

1228

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

33.97%chance

8033425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

542

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

30.52%chance

323226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

664

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Fintech
Blockchains
Tech
Robinhood Adds Toncoin to U.S. Crypto Platform, Ahead of Coinbase
Authors
14
1 year ago

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