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Top stories

WiseLink Leads US$10 Million Bitcoin Treasury Deal With Nasdaq-Listed Top Win

WiseLink Leads US$10 Million Bitcoin Treasury Deal With Nasdaq-Listed Top Win

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Top Win

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

34.04%chance

4330391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

435

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.09%chance

6710247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

331

Will Lamine Yamal win The Fifa Best Young Player award at the World Cup?

Mar 25, 2:56 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

18.41%chance

164537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2105

475

Will "Whack-a-Mole is Not a Winnable Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 4:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.23%chance

42222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

936

Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?

Nov 8, 3:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

13498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

843

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5185

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

65

56

30

24

22

Will Devon Larratt EVER defeat Levan Saginashvili in an arm wrestling supermatch?

Oct 2, 11:26 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

46.33%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 5:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

2104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

984

Will "How training-gamers might function (and win)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will BASIS San Antonio Shavano win top 3 in UIL mathematics state for 4A

Feb 13, 2:34 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

50.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
VC
Fintech
Markets
WiseLink Leads US$10 Million Bitcoin Treasury Deal With Nasdaq-Listed Top Win
Authors
5
9 months ago

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