Top Win News

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

628815

OptionVotes

YES

1647

341

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

433595

OptionVotes

YES

1634

496

Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMNov 20, 6:59 AM

16.69%chance

81456

OptionVotes

YES

2234

448

Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?

Nov 8, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.73%chance

251431

OptionVotes

YES

1473

804

Will the Audi works Formula 1 team win a Grand Prix in 2026, its first season?

Jun 11, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.1%chance

181358

OptionVotes

YES

1877

533

Toronto ATP Master 1000 Prop bets

Jul 25, 1:08 PMAug 10, 1:05 PM

101243

OptionProbability

Cincinnati tk

Will an American (USA, Canada, etc.) player win the tournament?

Will a player outside the top 10 win the tournament?

Will Zverev and Fritz face each other in the final?

Will a top 10 player be eliminated at his first match (2nd round)?

Will a Canadian player reach the semifinals?

Will the tournament be won without dropping a set?

Will a qualifier advance to the quarterfinals?

A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.

May 19, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.03%chance

16541

OptionVotes

YES

1194

914

Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?

Nov 8, 3:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

13498

OptionVotes

YES

1056

843

Will "New LessWrong review winner UI ("The LeastWro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 4, 11:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

2.44%chance

1400

OptionVotes

YES

520

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

1205

830

Will my Pokemon AI win its Nat Dex Monotype Gauntlet?

Dec 30, 3:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

3205

OptionVotes

YES

1194

838

Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 5:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

2104

OptionVotes

YES

1104

984

Top Win News

Prediction markets for Top Win

Prediction markets for Top Win

Prediction markets for Top Win

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?

Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?

Will the Audi works Formula 1 team win a Grand Prix in 2026, its first season?

Toronto ATP Master 1000 Prop bets

A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.

Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?

Will "New LessWrong review winner UI ("The LeastWro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Will my Pokemon AI win its Nat Dex Monotype Gauntlet?

Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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