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Prediction markets for Top Win
Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?
Jul 6, 5:51 AMApr 15, 11:59 PM
16.16%chance
5315044
OptionVotes
2329
642
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?
Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.01%chance
7513000
OptionVotes
1266
588
Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Jan 21, 6:12 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
103566
OptionProbability
45
35
6
6
4
1
1
1
0
0
0
Will "Whack-a-Mole is Not a Winnable Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 21, 4:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.23%chance
42222
OptionVotes
1499
936
OptionProbability
87
71
70
60
58
42
33
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6210
OptionProbability
61
51
30
24
22
OptionProbability
90
80
74
67
65
51
44
OptionVotes
238
42
Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 21, 5:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.67%chance
2104
OptionVotes
1104
984
OptionProbability
90
76
66
52
50
50
34
34
Will "How training-gamers might function (and win)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 2, 8:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?
Oct 13, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
00
OptionProbability
14
14
14
14
14
14
14


