TRA News

Kenya Investigates Tourist Disruption of Wildebeest Migration at Flooded Purungat Gate, TRA Probes, Stricter Overcrowding Rules Introduced

6 months ago

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.33%chance

34462765805

OptionVotes

YES

9920

9638

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.97%chance

810504552

OptionVotes

YES

57764

10557

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68%chance

25135143

OptionVotes

YES

2155

2105

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8923604

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Intel

Google

Other

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.85%chance

1423446

OptionVotes

YES

30273

3309

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Feb 3, 5:39 AMSep 1, 8:59 PM

34.35%chance

1823434

OptionVotes

YES

8619

3972

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.36%chance

8918719

OptionVotes

YES

4825

4292

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

3415050

OptionVotes

YES

6351

3156

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.68%chance

1014168

OptionVotes

YES

24110

4148

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

226797

OptionVotes

YES

15488

6457

Which country will next change its traffic handedness after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:21 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Myanmar

Thailand

Papua New Guinea

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Kenya
Natural Resources
Sustainability
Kenya Investigates Tourist Disruption of Wildebeest Migration at Flooded Purungat Gate, TRA Probes, Stricter Overcrowding Rules Introduced
Authors
4
6 months ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

TRA News

Top stories

Prediction markets for TRA

Prediction markets for TRA

Prediction markets for TRA

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Which country will next change its traffic handedness after 2025?

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram