TRA News

Kenya Investigates Tourist Disruption of Wildebeest Migration at Flooded Purungat Gate, TRA Probes, Stricter Overcrowding Rules Introduced

9 months ago

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.91%chance

34712790543

OptionVotes

YES

10481

9038

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

831515860

OptionVotes

YES

58238

10505

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.83%chance

1837402

OptionVotes

YES

22230

4498

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.17%chance

1826370

OptionVotes

YES

31493

3181

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Feb 3, 5:39 AMSep 1, 8:59 PM

24.36%chance

2025690

OptionVotes

YES

10819

3069

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9023704

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Intel

Google

Other

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.27%chance

9118824

OptionVotes

YES

4733

4397

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

3415050

OptionVotes

YES

6351

3156

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.51%chance

247237

OptionVotes

YES

15091

6626

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.85%chance

454025

OptionVotes

YES

8955

4526

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

Which country will next change its traffic handedness after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:21 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Myanmar

Thailand

Papua New Guinea

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Kenya
Natural Resources
Sustainability
Kenya Investigates Tourist Disruption of Wildebeest Migration at Flooded Purungat Gate, TRA Probes, Stricter Overcrowding Rules Introduced
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9 months ago

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Prediction markets for TRA

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Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Which country will next change its traffic handedness after 2025?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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