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Prediction markets for TRA
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
45.88%chance
34862801596
OptionVotes
11103
8478
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
5.21%chance
858583544
OptionVotes
89425
8110
Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?
Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
1%chance
64117559
OptionVotes
111094
6240
Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026
Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.28%chance
2186836
OptionVotes
65409
1529
Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM
8.47%chance
1949448
OptionVotes
32903
3045
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.11%chance
3437585
OptionVotes
43079
2321
OptionVotes
10819
3069
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32%chance
9520578
OptionVotes
6151
3618
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
20.29%chance
15211730
OptionVotes
7799
3854
Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?
May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.19%chance
5010868
OptionVotes
14635
3225
OptionProbability
1825
1627
OptionProbability
50
50
50
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