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Prediction markets for TRA
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
65.22%chance
34302736551
OptionVotes
12863
7615
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
19.85%chance
796429524
OptionVotes
34977
14290
OptionVotes
147833
4738
Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?
Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
12.58%chance
7132050
OptionVotes
25925
4669
Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?
Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36%chance
3415050
OptionVotes
6351
3156
OptionVotes
7368
4747
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.34%chance
192825
OptionVotes
12162
8222
Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM
48.52%chance
3470
OptionVotes
10300
9709
OptionProbability
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de
May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
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