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Prediction markets for Trade

Will Bitcoin trade above $400k before it falls below $40k?

Dec 25, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

75.72%chance

5340214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

177

Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Nov 26, 10:08 PMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

20.67%chance

8121828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

510

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Feb 3, 5:39 AMSep 1, 8:59 PM

42%chance

1410385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7403

4722

Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

Jan 8, 8:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.31%chance

414646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2714

70

Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?

Aug 6, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.2%chance

153907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3529

1289

Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?

Mar 26, 12:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

72.85%chance

292239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1643

201

Will Manifold Introduce an Incentive for Trading on Markets with Few Traders? (Proposal in Description)?

Mar 5, 4:49 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

8.02%chance

122127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2270

53

Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?

Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.24%chance

481579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

568

Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?

Jan 4, 4:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.53%chance

24972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

677

I will pay everyone who trades on this market 10 mana

Aug 25, 4:02 AMJul 21, 5:59 AM

69.96%chance

81630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

959

Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2025?

Dec 7, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.05%chance

6338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

962

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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