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Prediction markets for UPS
OptionProbability
83
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM
20342056
OptionProbability
92
85
39
26
21
2
0
Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)
Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
62.91%chance
12237892
OptionVotes
2306
1876
OptionVotes
3086
1164
If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
2519584
OptionProbability
52
49
48
41
40
38
35
28
28
20
14
14
3
OptionVotes
12411
841
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM
67.89%chance
676430
OptionVotes
1451
640
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
70.46%chance
131749
OptionVotes
1195
1194
In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?
Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM
50.53%chance
111652
OptionVotes
10107
9894
Will this tweet hold up: Sinners will be — should be — a Broadway show by 2035
Mar 16, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.72%chance
81627
OptionVotes
7353
4926
Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?
Aug 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:04 AM
47.29%chance
291208
OptionVotes
1240
898
Will the 2028 Presidential Election Winner Mog the Runner-up?
Feb 26, 2:28 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
58.66%chance
7345
OptionVotes
1112
813
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