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Prediction markets for Variety
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
85.72%chance
611543927
OptionVotes
6315
663
OptionVotes
7022
681
OptionVotes
1065
989
OptionVotes
1502
801
OptionVotes
1373
573
Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?
Jun 24, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.27%chance
3733958
OptionVotes
19453
13614
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?
Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.11%chance
19526223
OptionVotes
1985
379
Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.82%chance
1910007
OptionVotes
7878
2845
By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can
Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM
89.25%chance
131018
OptionVotes
455
147
Will "Varieties Of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 18, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.42%chance
4372
OptionVotes
1005
971
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