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Top stories

CapitalG, Nvidia Pursue Vast Data Investment Valuing AI Startup at $30 Billion

Authors

10

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Vast Data

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

By when will AI score >= 80% on FrontierMath

Nov 8, 9:58 PMNov 16, 7:59 AM

4211259

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

2035

2050

2024

36

32

13

10

5

2

2

1

0

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?

Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

75.15%chance

201079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1739

575

How will the data shortage for LLM gets solved

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24738

OptionProbability

Multimodal Data

Synthetic Data

88

55

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.36%chance

20496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

967

Will Elon Musk's accusation against Substack turn out to be true?

Apr 18, 7:23 PMDec 31, 6:23 PM

20.75%chance

9189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

99

Will language models, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2025

Jun 20, 2:53 PMDec 20, 3:00 AM

69.3%chance

7176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

349

224

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Jun 1, 6:48 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51.73%chance

6158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

67

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.2%chance

5137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

45

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

36

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Aug 1, 2025
Aug 1, 2025
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CapitalG, Nvidia Pursue Vast Data Investment Valuing AI Startup at $30 Billion
Authors
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1 day ago

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