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Prediction markets for VAST Data
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.55%chance
8250361
OptionVotes
28550
2982
OptionVotes
3717
270
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?
Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM
87.43%chance
241992
OptionVotes
2685
386
Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.53%chance
24587
OptionVotes
1032
969
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.62%chance
6459
OptionVotes
196
74
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?
Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
43.99%chance
5142
OptionVotes
121
99
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?
Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
84.57%chance
6138
OptionVotes
203
46
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
83.11%chance
370
OptionVotes
140
40
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?
Jun 1, 6:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
33.78%chance
120
OptionVotes
90
56
OptionProbability
29
25
12
12
12
12
Will the world become a global far-right dictatorship regime before 2100?
Sep 16, 5:49 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM
16.81%chance
14
OptionVotes
104
77
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