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Prediction markets for VAST Data
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.85%chance
8145087
OptionVotes
33264
2509
OptionProbability
42
32
13
5
2
2
2
1
0
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
OptionVotes
3573
281
Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?
Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM
84.45%chance
201679
OptionVotes
2372
437
Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
25.82%chance
22556
OptionVotes
1098
945
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Jun 1, 6:49 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
73.28%chance
13540
OptionVotes
231
100
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.62%chance
6459
OptionVotes
196
74
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?
Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
43.99%chance
5142
OptionVotes
121
99
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?
Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
85.2%chance
5137
OptionVotes
208
45
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
82.14%chance
265
OptionVotes
135
41
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?
Jun 1, 6:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
33.78%chance
120
OptionVotes
90
56
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