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Wall Street Journal News

    Prediction markets for Wall Street Journal

    Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

    Sep 20, 7:29 PMJun 29, 3:59 AM
    54.37%chance
    7645174

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1359

    1080

    Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book?

    May 15, 11:06 AMNov 16, 11:45 AM
    11614244

    OptionProbability

    Max Tegmark

    Emmett Shear

    Bruce Schneier

    George Church

    Scott Aaronson

    Daniel Kokotajlo

    Ben Bernanke

    Stephen Fry

    Tim Urban

    Grimes

    Scott Alexander

    A former Fed Chair

    Neel Nanda

    A professor of a Chinese university

    Stuart Russell

    Yoshua Bengio

    Toby Ord

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Carl Feynman

    Vitalik Buterin

    Yuval Noah Harari

    Nick Bostrom

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Kevin Roose

    Geoffrey Irving

    Billy Perrigo

    Manifold

    Helen Toner

    Gwern

    Ezra Klein

    Evan Hubinger

    Patrick McKenzie

    Publishers Weekly

    Vox

    Christine Peterson

    Keach Hagey

    Bill Gates

    Joe Rogan

    San Francisco Chronicle

    Peter Singer

    Booklist

    NPR

    Politico

    Lex Fridman

    Any five current members of the UK Parliament

    The Economist

    Matthew Yglesias

    David Chalmers

    A former US Secretary of Treasury

    A former US Secretary of State

    A Scientific American editorial

    Time

    A former US Secretary of Energy

    A former US Secretary of Commerce

    WIRED

    Gillian Hadfield

    Karen Hao

    A review in The Atlantic

    Telegraph

    Kurzgesagt

    The New York Times Book Review

    Peter Norvig

    At least five Nobel laureates

    Rolling Stone

    The New Yorker

    Tucker Carlson

    A Science editorial

    The Guardian

    Ray Kurzweil

    John Schulman

    A current pope

    Financial Times

    Bloomberg Businessweek

    Forbes

    A New Scientist editorial

    BBC

    Eric Schmidt

    A current US Secretary of Treasury

    Jimmy Fallon

    John Oliver

    IEEE Spectrum

    Vanity Fair

    Elon Musk

    Mustafa Suleyman

    A current UK prime minister

    Judea Pearl

    António Guterres

    Foreign Affairs

    Barack Obama

    Anthropic

    A Nature editorial

    The Washington Post

    Associated Press

    Any five current United States representatives

    The Wall Street Journal

    Shane Legg

    Alexandr Wang

    Ilya Sutskever

    roon

    Daron Acemoglu

    A high-ranking Chinese government official

    Reuters

    RFK Jr

    Richard Sutton

    Ivanka Trump

    Narendra Modi

    Dario Amodei

    Joe Biden

    Terence Tao

    OpenAI

    CNN

    Any five current United States senators

    Peter Thiel

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Demis Hassabis

    Mira Murati

    A current Fed Chair

    Ursula von der Leyen

    DeepMind

    JD Vance

    Daniela Amodei

    Jensen Huang

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Sam Altman

    Jeff Bezos

    Satya Nadella

    Greg Egan

    A current US Secretary of Energy

    Bill Clinton

    JK Rowling

    Noam Chomsky

    Donald J. Trump

    Fox News

    Chris Olah

    A current US Secretary of Commerce

    A current US Secretary of State

    Taylor Swift

    Mr. Beast

    Vladimir Putin

    Tim Cook

    Kamala Harris

    King Charles

    Xi Jinping

    Yann LeCun

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    90

    90

    85

    84

    83

    76

    76

    75

    72

    69

    68

    67

    66

    66

    62

    58

    57

    57

    56

    54

    54

    53

    52

    50

    49

    46

    44

    44

    44

    44

    44

    43

    43

    42

    42

    40

    39

    39

    37

    37

    37

    37

    35

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    33

    33

    33

    33

    32

    31

    30

    28

    27

    26

    26

    25

    25

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    23

    23

    22

    22

    22

    22

    20

    20

    20

    19

    18

    18

    18

    18

    17

    17

    17

    16

    16

    14

    14

    13

    13

    13

    13

    13

    12

    12

    12

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    Will Iran try to assassinate Trump?

    Feb 4, 10:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    13%chance
    186263

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2587

    387

    OptionProbability

    Settlement outside of court

    Court ruling in favor of WSJ

    Court ruling in favor of Trump

    73

    25

    2

    Who has received USAID funding?

    Feb 5, 5:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    123398

    OptionProbability

    Reuters

    The Washington Post

    NBC

    Associated Press

    NPR

    MSNBC

    The Wall Street Journal

    Axios

    Wired

    CNN

    Environmental Defense Fund

    The Trump Organization

    The New York Times

    Wikimedia Foundation

    Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

    Sierra Club

    Black Lives Matter

    Greenpeace

    Hamas

    41

    38

    36

    34

    32

    30

    30

    30

    30

    28

    25

    25

    21

    21

    20

    18

    13

    13

    12

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1216

    911

    OptionProbability

    Epoch Times

    NPR

    Wired

    Time

    TMZ

    Los Angeles Times

    New York Post

    USA Today

    The Onion

    Times of India

    Gateway Pundit

    Babylon Bee

    Daily Wire

    Newsmax

    Breitbart

    Al Jazeera

    Associated Press (AP)

    The Information

    The Base Rate Times

    Fox News

    Wall Street Journal

    CNN

    BBC

    NPR

    New York Times

    92

    79

    72

    72

    72

    69

    66

    66

    56

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    46

    45

    41

    34

    34

    34

    20

    18

    9

    BOA launches USD stablecoin in 2025?

    Mar 7, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    46.15%chance
    9731

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1080

    926

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1455

    887

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1109

    902

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1160

    862

    Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

    May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM
    52.98%chance
    5183

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1061

    942

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