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WTI News

    Prediction markets for WTI

    Israel-Iran 2025 war prop bets

    Jun 17, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    423132977

    OptionProbability

    US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

    Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

    UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

    Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

    Iranian General killed inside Iran

    Donald Trump declares victory

    Iranian government official declares victory

    China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

    US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

    G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

    Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

    Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

    War ends in 2025

    500+ Iranian civilians killed

    US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

    Fordow facility successfully bombed

    Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

    Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

    Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

    Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

    Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

    Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

    The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

    Israel government dissolves

    Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

    Iran launches a cruise missile

    At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

    Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

    North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

    Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

    A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

    Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

    Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

    Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

    Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

    A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

    A second cease-fire is announced

    Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

    Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

    A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

    USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

    Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

    Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

    There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

    Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

    Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

    WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

    >=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

    >=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

    Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

    USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

    A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

    Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

    Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

    Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

    Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

    Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

    Iranian government dissolves

    Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

    Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

    A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

    Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

    Iran regime change

    War Ends in June

    Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

    Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

    Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

    UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

    Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

    Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

    Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

    Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

    Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

    There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

    Total casualties exceed 10,000

    Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

    War ends in July

    Iran tests a nuclear weapon

    Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

    State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

    Qatar attacks Iran

    ≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

    US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

    Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

    A nuclear weapon is used offensively.

    Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)

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    1

    0

    Will oil cost more than $100/barrel before 2030?

    Jun 8, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    91.41%chance
    1814490

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    945

    810

    Will WTI hit 50 or 100 before the end of 2025

    Mar 31, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    20%chance
    7894

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    200

    50

    Will a recession start in 2024 conditional on the following oil prices?

    Jan 30, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    7359

    OptionProbability

    WTI oil prices hitting >= $100 at any point in 2024

    WTI oil prices never reach $100 in 2024

    34

    7

    The wti oil contract won't exist in 2027 because 90% of the oil in the world is fake

    Apr 11, 2:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    8.07%chance
    5238

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    306

    30