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Prediction markets for Adames
OptionProbability
2899
559
OptionProbability
577
473
Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM
74.18%chance
415684
OptionVotes
1558
698
By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
35.15%chance
372655
OptionVotes
1513
265
OptionVotes
181
130
Will Adam Henry Marblestone's *or* Jose Luis Ricon's childhood home turn into a UNESCO world heritage site by EOY2150?
Dec 2, 12:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10%chance
2200
OptionVotes
300
33
OptionVotes
140
92
Will Sam Altman have a lower DunedinPACE Rate of Aging than Adam D'Angelo?
Feb 28, 5:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61%chance
231
OptionVotes
98
83
Will Jose Ricon OR Adam Marblestone OR Ed Boyden OR Steve Horvath OR Jeremy nixon get a pet axolotl by 2032?
Sep 16, 7:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.25%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91
OptionVotes
107
93
Will Ed Boyden or Adam Marblestone be coauthor on a paper mentioning microplastics by EOY2031?
Sep 14, 7:20 PMSep 22, 3:59 AM
47.64%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
Will Adam Marblestone win the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2070?
Sep 21, 6:52 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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