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Prediction markets for Aidan
OptionProbability
97
97
97
96
96
96
94
91
90
88
75
67
57
50
29
29
21
14
14
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
6
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
25
15
13
8
6
6
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which AI companies will release a SoTA LLM on AidanBench in 2025?
Dec 28, 11:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
712400
OptionProbability
100
49
40
33
27
OptionProbability
71
9
6
5
5
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
51
12
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which players will be submitted for the US Men's 2026 World Cup Roster
Mar 13, 7:43 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM
82171
OptionProbability
90
82
81
79
76
75
75
75
71
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
67
66
65
64
63
54
54
50
50
50
50
50
46
46
46
44
42
41
38
38
37
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
31
30
30
28
25
25
22
19
17
17
17
15
14
9
8
Will I still be talking to Aidan McLaughlin 6 months from now?
May 26, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:26 PM
89.95%chance
2451
OptionVotes
299
33
🏈 How many games will each NFL quarterback in the Class of 2023 start in their career? (1 start = 1%)
Feb 14, 9:13 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM
5210
OptionProbability
90
59
41
34
22
10
OptionProbability
27
12
8
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?
Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
41.66%chance
455
OptionVotes
118
85
OptionProbability
42
28
10
10
10
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