Ali News

US Woman Jailed 30 Years for Failed Birmingham Assassination Plot

6 months ago

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

99443812

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52%chance

452120313

OptionVotes

YES

11005

10745

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

55.87%chance

20537409

OptionVotes

YES

2147

1827

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.85%chance

1423446

OptionVotes

YES

30273

3309

Will Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei flee (travel) to Russia by any of the following dates?

Jan 5, 7:04 PMDec 14, 11:59 PM

345084

OptionProbability

The regime remains stable, and no evacuation or travel of Khamenei to Russia or evacuation to any other country is expected by 1 December 2027

Other

Before 28 February 2026

After 15 May By 1 September 2026

After 1 September By 31 November 2026

After 28 February By 31 March 2026

After 31 March By 15 May 2026

After 1 November 2026 By 1 June 2027

After 1 June 2027 By 1 December 2027

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

434062

OptionVotes

YES

1057

822

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

96.96%chance

221945

OptionVotes

YES

1238

Will Ali Khamenei be out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30, 2026?

Jan 11, 12:57 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

32.51%chance

14665

OptionVotes

YES

144

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

1135

926

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Jan 14, 11:34 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.17%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

257

Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 18, 12:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.3%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

243

116

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

126

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Britain
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US Woman Jailed 30 Years for Failed Birmingham Assassination Plot
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6 months ago

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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Will Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei flee (travel) to Russia by any of the following dates?

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2030?

Will Ali Khamenei be out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30, 2026?

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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