Ali News

US Woman Jailed 30 Years for Failed Birmingham Assassination Plot

9 months ago

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103447144

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

Before January 2029

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.81%chance

469128479

OptionVotes

YES

11212

10521

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20647202

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Navid Shomali

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

61.29%chance

21439733

OptionVotes

YES

2088

1962

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.17%chance

1826370

OptionVotes

YES

31493

3181

Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027?

Jan 9, 2:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

476247

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

Ali Khamenei

Mohammad Reza Aref

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Hassan Khomenei

Ali Larijani

Sadiq Larijani

Mohsen Araki

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i

Alireza Arafi

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

YES

1057

822

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

1135

926

Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?

Apr 14, 10:54 AMAug 15, 10:50 AM

11216

OptionProbability

Zack Polanski

Ellie Chowns

Rachel Millward

Mothin Ali

Adrian Ramsey

Which GOATs in their respective sports will be widely considered to have been surpassed by 2050?

May 5, 4:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3215

OptionProbability

Michael Jordan

Magnus Carlsen/Garry Kasparov

Jon Jones

Tom Brady

Tiger Woods

Wayne Gretzky

Babe Ruth

Usain Bolt

Pele/Maradona/Messi

Michael Phelps

Nadal/Federer/Djokovic

Muhammed Ali

Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 18, 12:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.3%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

243

116

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

126

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Britain
Crime
Culture
US Woman Jailed 30 Years for Failed Birmingham Assassination Plot
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9 months ago

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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027?

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?

Which GOATs in their respective sports will be widely considered to have been surpassed by 2050?

Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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