Ali News

US Woman Jailed 30 Years for Failed Birmingham Assassination Plot

10 months ago

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103447885

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.31%chance

471128587

OptionVotes

YES

11105

10629

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

61.58%chance

21439747

OptionVotes

YES

2104

1953

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.18%chance

1826374

OptionVotes

YES

31489

3182

Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027?

Jan 9, 2:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

496426

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

Reza Pahlavi

Ali Khamenei

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Hassan Khomenei

Ali Larijani

Sadiq Larijani

Mohsen Araki

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i

Mohammad Reza Aref

Alireza Arafi

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

YES

1057

822

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

1135

926

Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?

Apr 14, 10:54 AMAug 15, 10:50 AM

11216

OptionProbability

Zack Polanski

Ellie Chowns

Rachel Millward

Mothin Ali

Adrian Ramsey

Which GOATs in their respective sports will be widely considered to have been surpassed by 2050?

May 5, 4:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3215

OptionProbability

Michael Jordan

Magnus Carlsen/Garry Kasparov

Jon Jones

Tom Brady

Tiger Woods

Wayne Gretzky

Babe Ruth

Usain Bolt

Pele/Maradona/Messi

Michael Phelps

Nadal/Federer/Djokovic

Muhammed Ali

Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 18, 12:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.3%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

243

116

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

126

OptionVotes

YES

1000

would you rather vote for trump or Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

Jun 18, 2:56 PM

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US Woman Jailed 30 Years for Failed Birmingham Assassination Plot
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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027?

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?

Which GOATs in their respective sports will be widely considered to have been surpassed by 2050?

Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

would you rather vote for trump or Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

Latest stories

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