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US Woman Jailed 30 Years for Failed Birmingham Assassination Plot
Authors
7
10 months ago
Prediction markets for Ali
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM
103447885
OptionProbability
76
9
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
50.31%chance
471128587
OptionVotes
11105
10629
Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?
Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM
61.58%chance
21439747
OptionVotes
2104
1953
Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM
9.18%chance
1826374
OptionVotes
31489
3182
OptionProbability
75
12
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?
Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
454104
OptionVotes
1057
822
(Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026?
Dec 24, 11:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16865
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
70
57
55
54
50
50
44
42
38
38
36
36
36
34
31
30
29
29
13
12
11
Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?
Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.76%chance
11242
OptionVotes
1135
926
Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?
Apr 14, 10:54 AMAug 15, 10:50 AM
11216
OptionProbability
80
24
24
24
17
Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 18, 12:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.3%chance
7121
OptionVotes
243
116
Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
126
OptionVotes
1000
1000