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Prediction markets for Ali
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM
103447144
OptionProbability
76
9
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
49.81%chance
469128479
OptionVotes
11212
10521
OptionProbability
55
24
6
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?
Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM
61.29%chance
21439733
OptionVotes
2088
1962
Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM
9.17%chance
1826370
OptionVotes
31493
3181
OptionProbability
60
21
5
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?
Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
454104
OptionVotes
1057
822
Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?
Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.76%chance
11242
OptionVotes
1135
926
Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?
Apr 14, 10:54 AMAug 15, 10:50 AM
11216
OptionProbability
80
24
24
24
17
Which GOATs in their respective sports will be widely considered to have been surpassed by 2050?
May 5, 4:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3215
OptionProbability
90
76
72
66
66
59
55
49
34
34
24
24
Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 18, 12:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.3%chance
7121
OptionVotes
243
116
Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
126
OptionVotes
1000
1000