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Prediction markets for Ali
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM
95382487
OptionProbability
76
11
10
8
7
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025?
Apr 5, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
97.06%chance
344277630
OptionVotes
5151
118
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
50.63%chance
432109670
OptionVotes
11029
10692
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?
Oct 26, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.42%chance
21483634
OptionVotes
4454
2201
When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?
Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
423994
OptionVotes
1057
822
Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM
43.92%chance
72471
OptionVotes
11299
8850
If Ali Khamenei is killed by EOY2025, will Israel claim credit within 3 months?
Jun 18, 8:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
162471
OptionProbability
88
8
4
Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2030?
Nov 7, 6:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
95.2%chance
171310
OptionVotes
880
113
US assassinates Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by EOY?
Jun 18, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.91%chance
141234
OptionVotes
717
14
Will Ayaan Hirsi Ali recant from Christianity before 2026?
Nov 15, 1:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
13%chance
8220
OptionVotes
370
135
Will Kamran Ali (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 18, 12:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.3%chance
7121
OptionVotes
243
116
Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000