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Trump Endorsement Vaults Byron Donalds Ahead in 2026 Florida GOP Race

1 year ago

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Trump Weighs Unprecedented GOP Convention Before 2026 Midterms

1 year ago

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US Envoy Says Israel and Syria Hold Good-Faith Security Talks

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Axios Says Putin Seeks China as Guarantor for U.S.–Europe Deal

1 year ago

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Rubio to Lead Ukraine Security Talks as Trump Pledges U.S. Air Support

1 year ago

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Mar 11, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

10510235

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.33%chance

182193

OptionVotes

YES

2200

722

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?

Aug 2, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.07%chance

81347

OptionVotes

YES

1562

640

Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.71%chance

81287

OptionVotes

YES

1244

261

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

764

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

YES

1328

823

Will musicians and bands unionize before 2030?

Oct 14, 4:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.68%chance

10189

OptionVotes

YES

209

188

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

YES

1061

942

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Jul 20, 6:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

133

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

16.69%chance

8159

OptionVotes

YES

223

Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?

Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

48.52%chance

680

OptionVotes

YES

111

108

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Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?

Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Axiom of Choice stock

Will musicians and bands unionize before 2030?

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?

Latest stories

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