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Prediction markets for Ben Smith
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025?
Apr 6, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.01%chance
365853
OptionVotes
1425
702
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2026?
Apr 21, 7:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.48%chance
132835
OptionVotes
1238
808
OptionVotes
1218
665
Will the person who is next elected US President for the first time be over 70?
Oct 1, 2:28 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM
30.22%chance
201436
OptionVotes
1073
751
OptionVotes
1275
567
OptionVotes
1283
630
Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?
Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.7%chance
15616
OptionVotes
1403
713
OptionVotes
1179
618
Will at least 15% of US adults in 2030 have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms in their lifetimes?
Jan 29, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.58%chance
15293
OptionVotes
1048
834
Will there be a new UN-recognized country before 2030?
Apr 4, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.73%chance
11220
OptionVotes
1021
917
OptionVotes
3690
3340
Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?
Jan 28, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.98%chance
12175
OptionVotes
1108
945
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