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Prediction markets for Bernardo Arévalo
BR Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market: Which of these proposals will the Brazilian Congress approve before the end of 2026?
Jun 23, 6:58 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
33486
OptionProbability
100
100
100
96
60
59
58
38
34
31
30
28
26
25
25
21
19
17
17
17
16
16
14
14
10
6
4
Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?
Apr 11, 2:47 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
33.55%chance
171915
OptionVotes
1124
923
Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?
Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM
17.07%chance
161849
OptionVotes
2210
328
Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
Nov 12, 5:42 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM
40.84%chance
181410
OptionVotes
1030
938
Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?
Jul 8, 12:38 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM
13.42%chance
141199
OptionVotes
1271
903
Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?
Jul 8, 11:11 AMOct 6, 2:59 AM
85.22%chance
9344
OptionVotes
305
56
How many of the original options in the "Brazilian Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market" will I resolve as YES?
Jun 23, 7:15 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
2297
OptionProbability
57
12
12
7
6
5
1
Additional withdrawal notifications to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court before the end of the decade
May 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
2.2%chance
6234
OptionProbability
492
362
If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?
Jul 8, 10:15 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM
6167
OptionProbability
35
32
26
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Brazilian Congress pass any income tax reform until the end of 2027?
Jul 29, 11:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
72.05%chance
8129
OptionVotes
153
85
Will the remains of Ethiopian Prince Dejatch Alemayehu be repatriated by the United Kingdom until Nov 14, 2029?
Jul 8, 12:42 PMNov 15, 2:59 AM
22.04%chance
351
OptionVotes
121
44
How will GiveWell's 2027 *Program* salary expenses compare to 2022's?
Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM
230
OptionProbability
21
20
12
12
12
12
11
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