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Prediction markets for Bernardo Arévalo
BR Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market: Which of these proposals will the Brazilian Congress approve before the end of 2026?
Jun 23, 6:58 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
33486
OptionProbability
100
100
100
96
60
59
58
38
34
31
30
28
26
25
25
21
19
17
17
17
16
16
14
14
10
6
4
Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?
Apr 11, 2:47 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
35.2%chance
171865
OptionVotes
1074
949
Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?
Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM
21.52%chance
151599
OptionVotes
1960
387
Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
Nov 12, 5:42 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM
40.84%chance
181410
OptionVotes
1030
938
Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?
Jul 8, 12:38 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM
13.42%chance
141199
OptionVotes
1271
903
Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?
Jul 8, 11:11 AMOct 6, 2:59 AM
85.22%chance
9344
OptionVotes
305
56
How many of the original options in the "Brazilian Congress 2024-2026 Mega-market" will I resolve as YES?
Jun 23, 7:15 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
2297
OptionProbability
57
12
12
7
6
5
1
Which of these countries will be the first to become an OECD member?
Nov 6, 12:33 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
10227
OptionProbability
26
22
17
14
12
10
Will Partido Progressista have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026?
Jul 8, 12:34 PMJun 1, 2:59 AM
27.5%chance
594
OptionVotes
141
60
If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?
Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM
15.45%chance
392
OptionVotes
178
54
Will the remains of Ethiopian Prince Dejatch Alemayehu be repatriated by the United Kingdom until Nov 14, 2029?
Jul 8, 12:42 PMNov 15, 2:59 AM
22.04%chance
351
OptionVotes
121
44
How will GiveWell's 2027 *Program* salary expenses compare to 2022's?
Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM
230
OptionProbability
21
20
12
12
12
12
11
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