Blume News

TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Mar 13, 6:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22089659

OptionProbability

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

None of these will happen by EOY 2028

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

[option already ruled out] The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

[option already ruled out, as the ban is already law] The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

Will congestion pricing in NY be stopped for more than 30 days in the next year?

Jan 21, 3:23 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

15.71%chance

2948660

OptionVotes

YES

19025

6471

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3148216

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Which of the following users will stay active on manifold until EOY 2025?

Feb 26, 3:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5021471

OptionProbability

@Joshua

@Bayesian

@strutheo

@Gabrielle

@Robincvgr

@Eliza

@snazzlePop

@MartinRandall

@shankypanky

@DanHomerick

@elienops

@copiumarc

@Tumbles

@SteveSokolowski

@mattyb

@Ammonlam

@EliezerYudkowsky

@Aella

@NicoDelon

@RobertCousineau

@Bohreromir

@Unown

@firstuserhere

@blume

@stardust

@geuber

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Jul 17, 4:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.62%chance

365448

OptionVotes

YES

2345

426

will we have evedence of aliens before 9000?

Sep 20, 7:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.01%chance

161241

OptionVotes

YES

990

920

BOTW stands for breath of the wild. will i beat it by 2099?

Dec 6, 2:03 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

62.32%chance

291038

OptionVotes

YES

1116

662

will magic be real before i die

Dec 21, 5:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.62%chance

15820

OptionVotes

YES

1395

444

Will ziz be released within the next year

Feb 17, 8:25 PMFeb 18, 7:59 AM

6.79%chance

8750

OptionVotes

YES

5097

4279

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

22.63%chance

12405

OptionVotes

YES

2683

2566

How old will Cimorene be when she's able to travel to a BART station unsupervised?

Feb 11, 7:56 AMNov 10, 12:59 AM

34.29%chance

14248

OptionProbability

YES

1036

921

Standalone Twilight Princess HD on Switch 2?

Aug 1, 4:08 PMAug 2, 4:05 PM

48.96%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

1021

979

Blume News

Prediction markets for Blume

Prediction markets for Blume

Prediction markets for Blume

TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Will congestion pricing in NY be stopped for more than 30 days in the next year?

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Which of the following users will stay active on manifold until EOY 2025?

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

will we have evedence of aliens before 9000?

BOTW stands for breath of the wild. will i beat it by 2099?

will magic be real before i die

Will ziz be released within the next year

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

How old will Cimorene be when she's able to travel to a BART station unsupervised?

Standalone Twilight Princess HD on Switch 2?

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