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OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
"The New Norm" ends
New James Bond actor is presented
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
A new supreme court justice appointed
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Approval < 35%
USA experiences a recession.
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
trump gets hospitalized
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
Fair elections in 2028
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Vances have another kid
US national bitcoin reserve created
The US leaves the World Health Organization
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Government shutdown
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Joe Biden dies
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
A major war in Asia occurs
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
New
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Trump announces he is tired of winning
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
A national ban on gender-affirming care
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
The department of education gets desolved
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Dow rises above 65,000
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Approval < 25%
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Tesla
Another pandemic
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Repeal obamacare
Trump says a racial slur
Trump visits Africa
Trump and Obama shake hands
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
54 or more Republican senate seats
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
JD Vance elected President
Trump runs for a third term
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Laura Loomer gets any government role
Record level unemployment
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Trump gets covid (again)
Constitutional Amendment
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
New national park created
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Starship lands on Mars
10% fewer government agencies
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump dies
Trump gets shot
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Trump bans abortion nationwide
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
"covfefe" posted again
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
US Invasion of any North/South American country
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
John Bolton indicted
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
American Manned Lunar Landing
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
New US national anthem
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Cannabis is federally legalized
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Trump and Melania divorce
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump is assassinated
Constitutional Amendment
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump loses the fake tan
A hurricane will be nuked
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Jimmy Carter dies
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3527
720
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2058
441
OptionProbability
Other
J. D. Vance
Josh Shapiro
Gavin Newsom
Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump Jr.
Gretchen Whitmer
Kamala Harris
Nikki Haley
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Raphael Warnock
Donald Trump
Vivek Ramaswamy
Ron DeSantis
Tim Scott
Jeff Jackson
Robert F Kennedy Jr
46
27
8
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1129
679
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1089
645
OptionProbability
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-09: AFC WIMBLEDON vs LINCOLN (League One)
2025-08-16: READING vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-08-19: AFC WIMBLEDON vs CARDIFF (League One)
2025-08-23: AFC WIMBLEDON vs BARNSLEY (League One)
2025-08-30: BRADFORD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-09-06: BOLTON vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-09-13: AFC WIMBLEDON vs ROTHERHAM (League One)
2025-09-20: DONCASTER vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-09-27: AFC WIMBLEDON vs WYCOMBE (League One)
2025-08-01: LUTON vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-22: AFC WIMBLEDON vs MILLWALL (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
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50
50
50
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
100
100
74
68
68
68
66
61
59
56
56
51
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41
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31
31
31
27
OptionProbability
Ramsay Bolton
Mance Rayder
Melisandre
Theon Greyjoy
Mors Umber
Asha Greyjoy
Other
Stannis Baratheon
Barbrey Dustin
Wyman Manderly
30
20
10
9
9
8
7
3
3
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
406
108
OptionProbability
2080 or later
2030s
2040s
2020s
2050s
2060s
2070s
25
24
19
15
6
6
5
OptionVotes
NO
YES
112
89