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Bukele News

    Prediction markets for Bukele

    🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]

    Feb 24, 7:07 PMSep 28, 3:59 AM
    297297513

    OptionProbability

    Adolf Hitler

    George Santos

    Benito Mussolini

    Vladimir Putin

    Joseph Stalin

    Kanye West

    Kim Jong-un

    Derek Chauvin

    Xi Jinping

    Jeffrey Epstein

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Dan Schneider

    David Duke

    Tucker Carlson

    Mao Zedong

    Viktor Orbán

    Genghis Khan

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    Thanos

    Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars

    Dolores Umbridge

    Nero (Roman emperor)

    Bill Cipher

    Curtis Yarvin

    Nick Land

    Shaun King

    Caligula

    King Leopold II of Belgium

    Negan Smith

    Alex Jones

    Augusto Pinochet

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

    A paperclip-maximizing AGI

    Lauren Boebert

    Pennywise, the clown from “It”

    Vlad the Impaler

    Saddam Hussein

    Commodus

    Cthulhu

    Hirohito

    Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan

    Joffrey Baratheon

    Sauron

    Hong Xiuquan

    SCP-682

    Uday Hussein

    Nicolas Maduro

    Jabba the Hutt

    Kyle Rittenhouse

    Lee Harvey Oswald

    Robert Edward Lee

    Pol Pot

    The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)

    Anders Breivik

    Voldemort

    Chris Benoit

    Rush Limbaugh

    Gannondorf

    Bobby Fischer

    Charles Manson

    The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II

    Jair Bolsonaro

    Drake

    Hugo Chavez

    Chris Chan

    Phillipe Petain

    A random convicted murderer

    A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well

    Andrew Tate

    Dylan Klebold

    A severe case of ulcerative colitis

    A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president

    Donald Trump

    Kang and/or Kodos

    Satan

    Josh Hawley

    A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants

    Albert Speer

    Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

    Steve Bannon

    Cersei Lannister

    A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life

    Ron Unz

    Ivan the terrible

    Otto Skorzeny

    Karl Donitz

    Trump's attempted assassin

    Christoper Rufo

    John Hinckley Jr.

    The Loc-Nar

    The Grim Reaper

    Charles "Chuck" Johnson

    Pat Buchanan

    A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"

    Whatifalthist

    Franz von Papen

    A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person

    Erich von Manstein

    Nikita Khrushchev

    Judas Iscariot

    Lyndon LaRouche

    Joseph McCarthy

    The CEO of MALIBAL

    Erich Ludendorff

    Mark Foley

    Andronikos II Palaiologos

    Liu Shan

    Roko

    Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson

    Godzilla

    Hasan Piker / Hasanabi

    Unabomber

    Jozef Tiso

    Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho

    Thomas Midgley Jr.

    Alfred Packer

    Brent Dill

    Steve Sailer

    Erwin Rommel

    Gongsun Yuan

    Hasso von Manteuffel

    King John

    EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD

    qin shi huang

    Shang Yang

    Richard Lynn

    James Longstreet

    A cockroach

    Niko Bellic

    Commodus

    Tito

    an asi agent from openai

    The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering

    Vriska Serket

    Miklos Horthy

    Franz Joseph 1

    WILLY ON WHEELS

    J. Philippe Rushton

    Lu Bu

    Yuan Shikai

    Yuan Shu

    Juan Peron

    Connor Duffy

    Faust

    Paul Von Hindenburg

    Charles XII of Sweden

    Zhou Enlai

    Samuel Alito

    @StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)

    Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)

    Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)

    Hunter Biden's laptop

    Giego Caleiro

    Fredrick Robert Brennan

    Jeremy Nixon

    Charles Murray

    Paul Ehrlich

    Michael de Santa

    anatoly karlin

    Jonathan Anomaly

    Alexey Guzey

    Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)

    Yuan Shao

    Jar Jar Binks

    JD Vance

    Karl Marx

    Peter Thiel

    Liang Mong-song

    Lucy Guo

    A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America

    Stephen Hsu

    James Buchanan

    Mehmed V

    Klaus Schwab

    Sean Hannity

    Rochelle Shen

    Black Hat (XKCD)

    King George III of England

    Ada Nguyen

    James Dewey Watson

    Laura Gao

    Claire Wang

    @ButtocksCocktoasten

    Jiang Zemin

    Any child of Trump (randomly selected)

    Salvador Allende

    Rorschach

    Wario

    A literal ham sandwich

    goth600

    Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger

    Elagabalus

    Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)

    A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President

    Light Yagami

    Neville Chamberlain

    Rod Blagojevich

    Brian Chau (@psychosort)

    Emperor Ling of Han

    Chris Brown

    Richard Watterson (from Gumball)

    Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe

    Hans Niemann

    Silvio Berlusconi

    Timothy Leary

    John Edwards

    Lex Luthor

    George Floyd

    Hunter Biden

    Razib Khan

    Kim Dotcom

    Waluigi

    Bad Bunny

    Deng Xiaoping

    Empress Dowager Cixi

    A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape

    A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US

    Brian Tomasik

    Your mom

    Eren Yeager

    THEAMAZINGATHEIST

    Richard Hanania

    A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma

    Chuck Norris

    You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)

    Ray Shaun Elussy

    Lucille Bluth

    Michael Vassar

    An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

    Kristi Noem's dog

    Moses (Bible)

    Yourself right now

    Elizabeth Holmes

    Eminem

    Stan Smith

    A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma

    Justin Trudeau

    Futarchy (Manifold users)

    Nicky Case

    Santa Claus

    Robespierre

    Yourself from 15 years ago

    Greta Thunberg

    @strutheo :)

    Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony

    Bill Gates

    Gavin Newsom

    Hillary Clinton

    Walter White

    Chat GPT

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Destiny

    George Soros

    Bill Cosby

    Ellen DeGeneres

    Harvey Weinstein

    Kamala Harris

    Ron DeSantis

    A can of beans

    George W. Bush

    Richard Nixon

    Jeremy Corbyn

    Joe Biden

    Julius Caesar

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Yasser Arafat

    Shinzo Abe

    Gus Fring

    Frank Underwood

    Mr Burns

    Mr Krabs

    Peter Griffin

    Homer Simpson

    Hank Hill

    Cruella De Vil

    Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)

    Ibram X. Kendi

    Rachel Dolezal

    Nayib Bukele

    Ayn Rand

    Barack Obama

    Young Sheldon

    Tony Soprano

    Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)

    Dr Robotnik / Eggman

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Taylor Swift

    Joe Rogan

    Javier Milei

    Emmanuel Macron

    Doctor Manhattan

    Bill Clinton

    Donkey Kong

    Rudy Giuliani

    An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Cedric the Entertainer

    Glenn Quagmire

    Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)

    Gollum/Smeagol

    Matthew Yglesias

    Vaush

    Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

    Donald Trump Jr

    Napoleon Bonaparte

    Jordan Peterson

    Scar (lion king)

    Margaret Thatcher

    Andrew Johnson

    Bill Ackman

    Bernie Madoff

    Jussie Smollet

    Avon Barksdale

    Yann Lecun

    The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party

    Elon Musk

    Paul Atreides

    Cenk Uygur

    Georgia Meloni

    Boris Johnson

    Trump from the 80s-90s

    Shirley Temple

    Mark Rutte

    Michael Jackson

    James (manifold)

    Austin (manifold)

    George Washington

    Zaphod Beeblebrox

    Mr Garrison (South Park)

    Lee Pace

    Muhammad the prophet

    Jose Luis Ricon

    BasedBeffJezos

    Mike Pence

    Nate Silver

    Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)

    Confucius

    hari seldon

    Teddy Roosevelt

    Franklin Delano Roosevelt

    Angela Merkel

    Jacinda Ardern

    shaq

    elvis

    random manifold user

    abe lincoln

    bruce springsteen

    billy joel

    Rishi Sunak

    Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform

    buddha

    satoshi nakamoto

    A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times

    100

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    Who will do an apparent Nazi salute during Trump's second term? (add answers)

    Jan 21, 4:40 PMJan 31, 4:59 AM
    17263916

    OptionProbability

    Steve Bannon

    Eduardo Verástegui

    Calin Georgescu

    Harry Redknapp

    David Walliams (Comedian)

    Kanye West

    George Simion

    Another religious figure in addition to Calvin Robinson

    Tommy Robinson

    Andrew Tate

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Enrique Tarrio

    @Anon99

    Julius Malema

    Matteo Salvini

    Elon Musk (again)

    Tristan Tate

    Paul Golding

    Tucker Carlson

    Alex Jones

    Jacob Chansley

    Calvin Robinson

    Markus Persson (Notch)

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Michael Waltz

    Any Democratic Senator, Governor, or former Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee

    Pete Hegseth

    Mel Gibson

    Nigel Farage

    Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia

    Donald Trump

    Marine Le Pen

    Lars von Trier

    Ching Hai

    Robert Fico

    Nicolás Maduro

    Nota Baloyi

    Kim Yo Jong

    Glenn Greenwald

    Conor McGregor

    Steve Witkoff

    Howard Lutnick

    Cory Booker

    Viktor Orban

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Erdoğan

    Logan Paul

    Jordan Bardella

    Pam Bondi

    JD Vance

    Palmer Luckey

    Larry Ellison

    Caitlyn Jenner

    Alex Karp

    Joe Exotic

    Jake Paul

    Martin Shkreli

    Sarah Palin

    Lex Fridman

    Guillaume Verdon

    Piers Morgan

    Aravind Srinivas

    Peter Pellegrini

    Alice Weidel

    Dave Chappelle

    Mohammed bin Salman

    Narendra Modi

    Owen Jones

    David Holz

    Giuseppe Conte

    Valery Gerasimov

    Jean-Luc Mélenchon

    Aleksandar Vučić

    Nayib Bukele

    Joe Rogan

    Joel Kaplan

    Emily Chang

    Claire Boucher (Grimes)

    Liv Boeree

    Sam Bankman Fried

    Sergey Lavrov

    Marion Maréchal

    Andrew Callaghan

    Liang Wenfeng

    Candace Owens

    Mario Nawfal

    Kim Dotcom

    Felix Kjellberg

    Alexander Lukashenko

    Marco Rubio

    Ghislaine Maxwell

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Ivanka Trump

    Jiankui He

    Ben Shapiro

    George Hotz

    Melania Trump

    Jared Kushner

    Javier Milei

    Trey Parker

    Brett Kavanaugh

    Robert Downey Jr.

    John Cena

    Peter Thiel

    Usha Vance

    Liz Truss

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Geert Wilders

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Matt Stone

    Vladimir Solovyov

    Ramzan Kadyrov

    Amichai Chikli

    J.K.Rowling

    Vladimir Putin

    Jeff Bezos

    Xi Jinping

    Rudy Giuliani

    Tim Walz

    Itamar Ben-Gvir

    Stephen Miller

    Dwayne Johnson

    joe biden

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Michelle Obama

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    62

    31

    28

    17

    17

    16

    16

    16

    14

    14

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    10

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    1

    Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador in 2030?

    Jul 29, 1:05 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
    36.32%chance
    302759

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1131

    879

    Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador at the end of 2025?

    Aug 6, 3:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM
    96.87%chance
    121029

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1071

    96

    Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?

    Feb 25, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM
    42.03%chance
    13835

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1355

    600

    Which of the following will be true by 2030? (Nayib Bukele Questions)

    Oct 1, 10:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    4675

    OptionProbability

    Still president of El Salvador

    Nearly Successful Assassination Attempt

    Dead

    Assassinated

    60

    53

    20

    19

    Will Nayib Bukele be in prison, dead, disappeared or on the run by 1st Jan 2030

    Sep 7, 6:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    22%chance
    8521

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    208

    122

    Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?

    Jan 1, 2:18 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
    15338

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Donald Trump

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Min Aung Hlaing

    Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin

    Nayib Bukele

    Mahmoud Abbas

    Lula

    57

    11

    9

    8

    6

    6

    2

    1

    Will Nayib Bukele peacefully transition out of power before 2035?

    Aug 6, 4:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    51.2%chance
    10275

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    195

    181

    Which of these four Latin / South American leaders will lose power first?

    Mar 21, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    10242

    OptionProbability

    Javier Milei

    Nicolas Maduro

    Daniel Ortega

    Nayib Bukele

    43

    24

    17

    16

    Will Nayib Bukele be extradited to The Hague before 2035?

    Mar 13, 4:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    43.2%chance
    3149

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    115

    87

    Bukele or Milei announces AI minister/advisor?

    May 18, 4:24 AMJan 19, 5:22 AM
    28.09%chance
    260

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    160

    62

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