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Caroline News

    Prediction markets for Caroline

    Who will be confirmed by the Senate as the next Chairman of the CFTC?

    Dec 13, 5:37 AMDec 31, 1:03 AM
    21229103

    OptionProbability

    Brian Quintenz

    Caroline Pham

    Summer Mersinger

    Jill Sommers

    Josh Sterling

    Another person

    96

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Which returning Survivor cast members will compete in Survivor Season 50?

    May 23, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    2138340

    OptionProbability

    Cirie Fields

    Ozzy Lusth

    Q Burdette

    Christian Hubuki

    Charlie Davis

    Genevieve Mushaluk

    Kyle Ostwald

    Angelina

    Colby Donaldson

    Joe Hunter (s48)

    Emily Flippen

    Rob Mariano (Boston Rob)

    John Cochran

    Parvati Shallow

    Tony Vlachos

    Rupert Boneham

    Malcolm Freberg

    Sandra Diaz-Twine

    Andy Rueda

    Rachel LaMont

    Russell Hantz

    Jeremy Collins

    Vercepia Towry

    Carolyn Wiger

    Drew Basile

    Kenzie Petty

    Rob Cesternino

    Venus Vafa

    Caroline Vidmar

    Solomon (“Sol”) Yi

    Ben Katzman

    Austin Li Coon

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Relationship Style Stonks

    Mar 25, 9:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    5813093

    OptionProbability

    Other

    BDSM

    Power couple

    "Fun while it lasted"

    Me + *Her*

    Keynesian beauty contest

    Spinning rapidly in opposite directions

    Polyamory

    Monogamy

    Relationship Futarchy

    Human + Robot

    Enemies to Lovers

    Co-conspirators

    Philosophically incompatible

    Conjoined twinks

    Horizontal gene transfer

    borgie

    Relationship Anarchy

    Platonic

    Wild Lovers

    Friends with Benefits

    Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence

    Forever alone

    Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy

    Hobbesian

    Hive / Swarm / Superorganism

    Love triangle

    Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks

    Universal love

    merged consciousness

    Rationalussy

    Vespertine

    liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets

    Matriarchy

    Labor Union

    Socratic

    One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)

    Just being one helluva slut

    Beard

    Paradixical

    Friends with Detriments

    NP-complete

    The Apprentice

    Hell's Kitchen

    Stockholm Syndrome

    London Syndrome

    Financial Domination

    The Price is Right

    Crows

    Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)

    Budget horse

    assortative

    Hubris quest

    Fiends with benefits

    Envenomation

    Polygamy

    Polyandry

    Ethical Non-Monogamy

    Unethical Non-Monogamy

    Celibacy

    Aromanticism

    Solo poly

    Open relationship

    Polyfidelity

    What's a "relationship"?

    Reflexive

    Symmetric

    Transitive

    Metamour

    Socially enforced monogamy

    Unreciprocated love

    Asexual romance

    Abusive

    "This is my emotional support Ex"

    FWB

    Enemies-To-Lovers

    Codependent

    Transference

    Monogamish

    Voyeuristic

    Romantic Mutual Suicide

    Mutuals

    Animalistic

    Human + AI

    parasocial

    Polycule

    Cuckold

    Throuple

    Boyce-Codd normal form

    Aristotelian

    Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried

    I like big butts and I cannot lie

    I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon

    "I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"

    15

    8

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands after Dick Schoof?

    Jul 2, 10:22 AMJul 9, 8:59 PM
    192604

    OptionProbability

    Frans Timmermans

    Other

    Dilan Yesilgöz

    Henri Bontenbal

    Geert Wilders

    Marnix van Rij

    Caroline van der Plas

    Lilianne Ploumen

    Edith Schippers

    Pieter Omtzigt

    Sophie Hermans

    Jesse Klaver

    Sigrid Kaag

    Mona Keizer

    Joost Eerdmans

    Ahmed Aboutaleb

    Rob Jetten

    Ronald Plasterk

    Fleur Agema

    Johan Remkes

    Mark Harbers

    Mariëlle Paul

    Carola Schouten

    Kim Putters

    Martin Bosma

    Fred Teeven

    Hans Hoogervorst

    Richard van Zwol

    Rita Verdonk

    Mark Rutte

    22

    16

    13

    7

    5

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

    Jan 25, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    12.62%chance
    16872

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1447

    899

    Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?

    Nov 1, 5:47 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM
    26.72%chance
    11753

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1656

    604

    Who authored the ACX "Dating Men In The Bay Area" review?

    Aug 15, 5:59 PMDec 31, 6:56 PM
    14676

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Sympathetic Opposition

    Aella

    Caroline Ellison

    90

    5

    2

    2

    Which of these Dutch political party leaders will cease to be party leader first?

    May 3, 1:13 PMJan 1, 2:07 PM
    8631

    OptionProbability

    Dilan Yeşilgöz (VVD)

    Caroline van der Plas (BBB)

    Rob Jetten (D66)

    Frans Timmermans (GroenLinks–PvdA)

    Henri Bontenbal (CDA)

    Geert Wilders (PVV)

    47

    15

    12

    11

    9

    6

    Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?

    Sep 24, 8:38 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM
    6.3%chance
    8503

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    386

    26

    Will Caroline Capital launch before 3AC pt2?

    Dec 15, 9:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    8.16%chance
    4153

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    263

    70

    Philosophy Academics among Manifold users (permanent)

    May 2, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    5136

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Caroline Wall

    Rafael Ruiz

    William D’Alessandro

    58

    16

    14

    12

    Who will win the 2026 election for California's 20th State Senate district

    Jul 2, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    265

    OptionProbability

    Caroline Menjivar (incumbent)

    Other

    73

    27

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