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Prediction markets for Carr
OptionVotes
60647
2307
Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?
Dec 17, 5:10 PMFeb 23, 7:59 AM
55.39%chance
9620273
OptionVotes
1450
885
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
May 19, 5:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.34%chance
1257897
OptionVotes
2959
2889
Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?
Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM
69.56%chance
406214
OptionVotes
3162
2308
Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
59.99%chance
294426
OptionVotes
1109
895
OptionProbability
99
99
68
45
38
30
25
23
21
21
21
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
17
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
12
11
11
7
If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?
Jun 12, 8:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.71%chance
141561
OptionVotes
1517
659
[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?
May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM
44.23%chance
71047
OptionVotes
1123
891
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?
Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM
71.04%chance
11918
OptionVotes
1566
638
If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?
Jun 3, 6:34 PMJun 4, 6:59 AM
56.16%chance
17891
OptionVotes
1132
884
China has nuclear-powered carrier in service by end 2040?
Sep 19, 5:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
62.11%chance
9690
OptionVotes
1280
781
Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034
May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
47.95%chance
5350
OptionVotes
1042
960
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