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Prediction markets for Carrie

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

Dec 17, 5:10 PMFeb 23, 7:59 AM

65.12%chance

8818881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1729

701

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Apr 6, 12:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

295455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

75.9%chance

394722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3864

2046

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.92%chance

113578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13205

7968

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74.6%chance

272368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1580

651

Will Trump sign a concealed-carry reciprocity bill?

Nov 10, 7:37 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM

54.78%chance

62055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

909

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

81.5%chance

151996

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2099

476

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

23.61%chance

111128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

556

Before the end of 2025, the Russians will at least once try to carry out a large offensive on the city of Kharkov

Apr 3, 11:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55.11%chance

20700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

860

Will India's Gaganyaan spacecraft carry an astronaut to orbit before 2030?

Feb 26, 5:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.47%chance

11496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1269

860

Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034

May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

5350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

960

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

49.52%chance

2204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

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