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Top stories

Brooklyn Lounge Shooting Kills Three; Police Seek Two Remaining Gunmen

Brooklyn Lounge Shooting Kills Three; Police Seek Two Remaining Gunmen

Authors

80

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Childs

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

When Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male

Jul 19, 5:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

516146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

912

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

30.29%chance

75041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12910

8301

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.78%chance

404006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

823

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10581

9400

If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate?

Dec 2, 7:11 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.57%chance

152223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1662

602

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.07%chance

292119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

656

If @Austin's wife or child died, would he cry?

Aug 26, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.28%chance

221769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

702

Will Elon Musk name his child "Physics"?

Sep 26, 12:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.84%chance

311342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1640

790

If we buy a new car seat for our next child, will they cry less in the car?

Feb 10, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.44%chance

211283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

770

Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?

Aug 5, 8:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.95%chance

81205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1734

577

By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?

Jul 21, 9:00 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.9%chance

249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

982

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 17, 2025
Aug 17, 2025
Crime
New York
Culture
Brooklyn Lounge Shooting Kills Three; Police Seek Two Remaining Gunmen
Authors
80
3 days ago

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