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Chuck Grassley News

    Prediction markets for Chuck Grassley

    When, where or how will Trump die?

    Jan 4, 3:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    34570400

    OptionProbability

    On Earth

    Before 2045

    Before WW3

    Before we have an universal flu vaccine

    Before me

    In the US

    Before we get ASI

    After his presidency

    After Mitch McConnell

    In the Eastern time zone

    Natural causes

    When BTC is above $80.000

    When TRUMP Coin is below $1.0

    Surrounded by his friends and loved ones

    Before potato2017 gets a world record in any competitive achievement leaderboard in the online game tetr.io

    In a hospital

    Before we get AGI

    Closer to Venus than to Mars

    in bed

    At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)

    After Joe Biden

    After Chuck Grassley

    After Bernie Sanders

    When BTC is below $100.000

    While he is on a GLP-1

    After Jim Risch

    After Angus King

    After Dick Durbin

    In his sleep

    In Florida

    Closer to Venus than to the Sun

    After he announced he is sick

    After my Manifold account has been inactive for 12+ months

    Mar-a-Lago

    In a way that Manifold finds suspicious, according to a Manifold poll

    Before 2030

    Closer to Mars than to the Sun

    While in office

    In front of a camera

    While mercury is in retrograde

    Within 6 months of leaving office

    On a Sunday

    On a Monday

    On a Tuesday

    On a Wednesday

    On a Thursday

    On a Friday

    On a Saturday

    By assassination

    After 2035

    The White House

    After a stroke in public

    2034

    Outside (not in a vehicle or building)

    After 2040

    While doing a speech

    2030

    During WW3

    With a bullet inside his body

    2032

    2029

    2031

    2033

    On an airplane

    2035

    2037

    In New Jersey

    2035

    On TV

    2038

    2028

    2027

    2039

    After J D Vance dies

    Killed because a deal went sideways

    2026

    While doing a funny dance

    In Qatar

    While having sex

    On a gold toilet

    In Russia

    He will become effectively immortal

    Food poisoning

    In Greenland

    Before the midterms 2026

    2025

    Q2, 2026

    Before ending World Cup 2026

    99

    98

    97

    96

    95

    93

    84

    83

    82

    79

    79

    78

    77

    76

    75

    72

    70

    68

    65

    61

    53

    50

    47

    45

    45

    45

    45

    45

    43

    38

    37

    33

    31

    27

    25

    23

    23

    20

    18

    17

    16

    15

    15

    15

    15

    15

    15

    15

    15

    14

    14

    14

    13

    13

    12

    11

    10

    10

    10

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    Which US Senators and Candidates will win?

    May 15, 7:57 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM
    7026455

    OptionProbability

    Ed Markey - 2026 Massachusetts

    Roy Cooper - 2026 North Carolina

    Jon Ossoff - 2026 Georgia

    Ashley Moody - 2026 Florida

    Mary Peltola - 2026 Alaska

    Mike Lee - 2028 Utah

    Abdul El Sayed - 2026 Michigan

    Sherrod Brown - 2026 Ohio

    James Talarico - 2026 Texas

    Josh Turek - 2026 Iowa

    Dan Osborn - 2026 Nebraska

    Chuck Grassley - 2028 Iowa

    Bernie Sanders - 2030 Vermont

    Chuck Schumer - 2028 New York

    John Fetterman - 2028 Pennsylvania

    Lindsey Graham - 2026 South Carolina

    Graham Platner - 2026 Maine

    98

    90

    89

    87

    73

    68

    64

    57

    57

    43

    36

    28

    26

    23

    7

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Marco Rubio

    Gavin Newsom

    J.D. Vance

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Jon Ossoff

    Pete Buttigieg

    Gretchen Whitmer

    No one

    Kamala Harris

    Ted Cruz

    Nikki Haley

    Ron DeSantis

    Michelle Obama

    Jeb Bush

    Jeff Bezos

    Wes Moore

    Cory Booker

    Dean Phillips

    J. B. Pritzker

    Elon Musk

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson (MrBeast)

    Elise Stefanik

    Andrew Yang

    John Fetterman

    Joe Lombardo

    Tim Scott

    Tammy Duckworth

    Amy Klobuchar

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    [Invalid entry - Will resolve NO]

    Chuck Grassley

    Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

    Greg Abbott

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Zohran Mamdani

    39

    8

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    J. D. Vance

    Ted Cruz

    Marco Rubio

    Ron Desantis

    Glenn Youngkin

    Josh Hawley

    Doug Burgum

    Nikki Haley

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Greg Abbott

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Tucker Carlson

    Donald Trump

    Tim Scott

    Mike Johnson

    Kristi Noem

    Elise Stefanik

    Chuck Grassley

    Satan

    Chuck Norris

    84

    61

    59

    52

    48

    43

    38

    34

    33

    31

    29

    29

    26

    25

    24

    20

    17

    15

    6

    1

    1

    Will a US senator die before October 1st?

    Aug 3, 11:56 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM
    6.38%chance
    364762

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3830

    261

    Who will be the last 20th century US Senator?

    May 10, 12:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    93030

    OptionProbability

    Patty Murray (1993)

    Mike Crapo (1999)

    Ron Wyden (1996)

    Chuck Schumer (1999)

    Jack Reed (1997)

    Susan Collins (1997)

    Chuck Grassley (1981)

    Dick Durbin (1997)

    Mitch McConnell (1985)

    25

    19

    17

    15

    9

    9

    3

    1

    1

    2026 Death Pool

    Apr 19, 1:52 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
    271991

    OptionProbability

    Harald V of Norway

    Mitch McConnell

    Bruce Willis

    Rudy Giuliani

    Chuck Grassley

    Ben Sasse

    Ingvar Carlsson

    George Soros

    Bernie Sanders

    Warren Buffet

    Joe Biden

    Volodymyr Zelensky

    Jordan Peterson

    Donald Trump

    Vladimir Putin

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Elon Musk

    100

    54

    52

    37

    35

    34

    34

    31

    31

    18

    14

    13

    11

    10

    7

    6

    4

    OptionProbability

    George Ariyoshi

    Harald V of Norway

    Frank J. Guarini

    Kay Granger

    Ali Khamenei

    Bajrakitiyabha

    Jesse Jackson

    Barney Frank

    Neal Dunn

    Paul Biya

    Mitch McConnell

    Ben Sasse

    Lech Wałęsa

    Imelda Marcos

    Jean Chrétien

    Douglas Hurd

    Dennis Skinner

    Michiko

    Akihito

    Wes Uhlman

    Joseph Estrada

    Paul Keating

    King Charles III

    Clint Eastwood

    Joe Biden

    Bill Clinton

    Chuck Grassley

    Donald Trump

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    67

    50

    42

    38

    38

    29

    27

    27

    26

    25

    24

    24

    24

    22

    22

    18

    12

    8

    7

    5

    Which 2028 US Senate elections will a Democrat win?

    Sep 7, 12:16 AMNov 8, 12:00 AM
    61595

    OptionProbability

    Connecticut (Incumbent - (D) Richard Blumenthal)

    California (Incumbent - (D) Alex Padilla)

    Vermont (Incumbent - (D) Peter Welch)

    Illinois (Incumbent - (D) Tammy Duckworth)

    Washington (Incumbent - (D) Patty Murray)

    Hawaii (Incumbent - (D) Brian Schatz)

    Maryland (Incumbent - (D) Chris Van Hollen)

    New York (Incumbent - (D) Chuck Schumer)

    Oregon (Incumbent - (D) Ron Wyden)

    Colorado (Incumbent - (D) Michael Bennet)

    New Hampshire (Incumbent - (D) Maggie Hassan)

    Arizona (Incumbent - (D) Mark Kelly)

    Pennsylvania (Incumbent - (D) John Fetterman)

    Georgia (Incumbent - (D) Raphael Warnock)

    Wisconsin (Incumbent - (R) Ron Johnson)

    Nevada (Incumbent - (D) Catherine Cortez Masto)

    North Carolina (Incumbent - (R) Ted Budd)

    Ohio (Incumbent - TBD 2026 Special Election)

    Iowa (Incumbent - (R) Chuck Grassley)

    Alaska (Incumbent - (R) Lisa Murkowski)

    Kansas (Incumbent - (R) Jerry Moran)

    South Carolina (Incumbent -(R) Tim Scott)

    Utah (Incumbent - (R) Mike Lee)

    Florida (Incumbent - TBD 2026 Special Election)

    Missouri (Incumbent - (R) Eric Schmitt)

    Indiana (Incumbent - (R) Todd Young)

    North Dakota (Incumbent - (R) John Hoeven)

    Arkansas (Incumbent - (R) John Boozman)

    Idaho (Incumbent - (R) Mike Crapo)

    Kentucky (Incumbent - (R) Rand Paul)

    Louisiana (Incumbent - (R) John Kennedy)

    Oklahoma (Incumbent - (R) James Lankford)

    South Dakota (Incumbent - (R) John Thune)

    Alabama (Incumbent - (R) Katie Britt)

    94

    93

    93

    92

    92

    90

    90

    90

    90

    89

    87

    74

    67

    66

    65

    61

    61

    44

    35

    34

    27

    20

    20

    17

    15

    14

    12

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    8

    7

    OptionProbability

    Chuck Grassley

    Mitch McConnell

    Kay Ivey

    Angus King

    Bernie Sanders

    John Roberts

    Clarence Thomas

    Sonya Sotomayor

    Donald Trump

    Samuel Alito

    Nancy Pelosi

    74

    65

    29

    20

    17

    16

    14

    14

    13

    8

    4

    Will Chuck Grassley serve out his term in the US Senate?

    Nov 24, 9:45 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM
    73.71%chance
    11199

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    156

    40

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    115

    87

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