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Prediction markets for Cornell
🗣️Who will run for president in the 2028 election? [ADD RESPONSES]
OptionProbability
91
81
81
77
76
72
71
71
65
65
63
63
60
59
58
57
57
53
52
51
49
47
46
42
42
41
40
40
40
39
37
37
34
33
31
31
29
28
28
28
27
27
25
23
22
21
20
20
19
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
11
8
8
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?
OptionProbability
66
50
33
27
25
24
18
16
13
10
9
9
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
97
96
83
83
81
77
74
66
66
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
44
41
41
39
39
38
36
34
24
23
23
20
18
17
10
9
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
4
4
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
98
93
90
85
82
74
72
72
71
65
64
64
63
63
63
62
62
60
60
60
60
59
59
59
59
58
58
58
58
58
57
57
56
56
55
55
54
54
54
53
53
53
53
52
52
52
51
51
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
49
48
48
48
47
47
46
46
45
44
44
44
44
43
41
41
39
38
38
35
35
33
29
28
14
7
3
1
1
1
OptionVotes
3634
134
OptionProbability
33
11
9
8
7
6
5
5
4
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
60
6
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
56
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
1
1
1
1
1
One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?
OptionProbability
57
27
16
Total applications to Ivy League schools decrease by at least 20% for Class of 2032 compared to Class of 2028
OptionVotes
130
77
OptionProbability
67
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
Will Taylor Swift ever walk Cornelia Street again? (Before 2030)
OptionVotes
223
83


