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Top stories

Charli XCX Weds The 1975 Drummer George Daniel in London

Charli XCX Weds The 1975 Drummer George Daniel in London

Authors

4

14 days ago

Prediction markets for Daniel

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:45 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

84.5%chance

94529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2335

428

Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?

May 27, 9:26 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

82.42%chance

213066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2165

462

Will Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?

Oct 14, 10:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.43%chance

102745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3531

283

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:11 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

85.74%chance

61563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2452

408

New York Giants 2025 Week One: Daniel Jones vs Brian Daboll

Mar 26, 11:17 PMSep 30, 3:59 PM

51544

OptionProbability

Jones is not on roster; Daboll is Head Coach

Jones is not on roster; Daboll is not Head Coach

Jones is on roster; Daboll is Head Coach

Jones is on roster; Daboll is not Head Coach

95

2

2

1

Daniel Jones starts Week 1 for Colts in 2025 NFL season

Mar 12, 10:02 PMSep 7, 12:00 AM

70.87%chance

81309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

641

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

Will Daniel Larson still be alive at the end of 2026?

Aug 26, 4:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.16%chance

4363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

402

25

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.62%chance

12205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

966

Daniel Jones Week 1 starter for Indianapolis Colts?

Jun 6, 5:15 PMSep 4, 11:59 PM

63.81%chance

6160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Will "Daniel Kahneman has died" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 27, 10:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.72%chance

5115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

315

188

Will Daniel Larson be back in 2025?

Dec 1, 11:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 19, 2025
Jul 19, 2025
Britain
Music
Celebrities
Charli XCX Weds The 1975 Drummer George Daniel in London
Authors
4
14 days ago

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