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Prediction markets for Daniel
Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?
Nov 6, 7:45 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM
90.66%chance
105749
OptionVotes
3115
321
Will Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?
Oct 14, 10:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
7.26%chance
103200
OptionVotes
3614
283
Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?
May 27, 9:26 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
82.42%chance
213066
OptionVotes
2165
462
Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?
Nov 6, 7:11 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM
88.83%chance
72644
OptionVotes
2820
355
Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?
Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
36.99%chance
8525
OptionVotes
1283
975
Will Daniel Negreanu win the World Series of Poker main event before the end of 2034?
Apr 30, 3:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
6.4%chance
5404
OptionVotes
542
41
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.99%chance
13210
OptionVotes
1053
971
OptionVotes
271
37
OptionProbability
218
11
Will the current IDF spokesperson, Daniel Hagari, be nominated for the position of Chief of Staff of the IDF?
Nov 19, 8:16 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
32.91%chance
5144
OptionVotes
128
63
Will Daniel Zhang (CEO of Alibaba) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 27, 2:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.48%chance
6125
OptionVotes
217
97
Daniel Lurie runs for governor of California before 2035
Nov 1, 12:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
59.02%chance
220
OptionVotes
120
83
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