OptionProbability
Other
Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Jeff Bezos
Mr. Beast
Barack Obama
Donald Trump
Jensen Huang
Robert Caro
Kamala Harris
Satoshi Nakomoto
Sarah Paine
Sam Altman
Narendra Modi
Gwern Branwen
JD Vance
roon
Geoffrey Hinton
The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)
Terence Tao
Ilya Sutskever
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
Tim Cook
Satya Nadella
Justin Trudeau
Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)
Xi Jinping
Dalai Lama
Buffett
Taylor Swift
Joe Biden
Lebron James
GPT-5
Bill Clinton
A basketball player
Vladimir Putin
Benjamin Netanyahu
Jesus Christ
Rona Wang
Jose Luis ricon
Kettner Griswold
James Koppel
Sam Bankman-Fried
Nancy Pelosi
Rishi Sunak
Keir Starmer
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Al Gore
Michael Jackson
your mom
Mitt Romney
one or both of his parents
A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"
Connor Duffy
MBS
pope Francis
Scott Alexander
Leonardo DiCaprio
RFK Jr
Sydney Sweeney
growing_daniel
greg16676935420
Deadpool
Shaq
Oprah Winfrey
Yoshua Bengio
Sundar Pichai
Scarlett Johansson
Paul McCartney
[duplicate]
Neel Nanda
King Charles
Kim Jong Un
Gavin Newsom
Royal Palace
[cancelled option]
Daniel Yergin
Peter Singer
Gabe Newell
Neil Gorsuch
Stephen Breyer
Dmitry Medvedev
JK Rowling
Shrek
Sam Hyde
[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI
Peter Thiel
Marques Brownlee
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald Trump Jr.
Ben Shindel
Javier Milei
Dylan Patel
Joe Rogan
Marc Andreessen
Mike Tyson
Jake Paul
Matt Gaetz
20
14
12
9
8
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Hong Wang
Other
Jacob Tsimerman
Jack Thorne
John Pardon
Aleksandr Logunov
Yu Deng
Sam Raskin
Vesselin Dimitrov
Matteo Verni
Julian Sahasrabudhe
Will Sawin
Maria Colombo
Yibo Gao
Tom Hutchcroft
Javier Fresan
Maksym Radziwill
Karim Adiprasito
Song Sun
Tatenda Kubalalika
Elia Bruè
Amol Aggarwal
Akhil Mathew
Ashwin Sah
Alexander Efimov
Simion Filip
Jeremy Hahn
Lisa Sauermann
Dennis Gaitsgory
(duplicate, will resolve no)
Xian-Jin Li
Mike Wolf
Joseph Palmer
A non-human (e.g. an LLM)
Jacob Braunschweig
Miguel Walsh
Igor Rodnianski
Tasuki Kinjo
Junliang Shen
Hannah Larson
Justin Fields
Frederick Manners
Yuansi Chen
yunqing tang
Noé Cruchet
Vincent Tassion
Tony Yu
David Budden
Ziyang Gao
Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis
Daniel Restrepo
22
21
14
13
9
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jenin
Ivie (Charmunk)
Alfie
Dhyan
Leo Wilkin
Ian Madden
Tanishq
Matthew
FoxMoss
Mohamad
Luke Oldenburg
Briyan Dyju
maxstellar
Shurui / @variidian
CANDY
menace
aarav
menace
Jay
Alex (p variant)
junya
Scooter Y
Shyla / Sprinkles
Mahad
sofia
Jmeow
Rowan
Daniel (dld)
Neon
astra
hana
lynn
Lenny
christian
ethan
Taran
Fireentity
Miguel
Miguel (old)
cyteon
Rushil
Jeremy
James
Joe Biden
paperclip
zach latta
m0.hid
Kieran
Fr
frog
pianoman
alice
Undefined
Nova
Jan
jollyroger182
dinobox
thetridentguy
@khang2009
BnaJns
End
Violet
kat wang / kook
zeeno.
owais
sahil
Ryan Jules
maddy
lukas
zook
Abyssal Entity, Lord Ananta the Developer
Aditya (dsg)
blowupthenoobs
Mostafa.S
Koeg
1Mon
Raygen Rupe
grass
aj
Iamalive
hellonearth311
RS
gamer_waves (dwait)
Daamin
Tanmay (tan)
Manan
genr234
atomtables
stolen_username
Peleg
Anson
aka
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
58
43
36
23
19
15
15
13
12
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
put ketchup and cheese on it
Add garlic
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Add slurs to it
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Make the bread taste good
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Strawberry jelly filling
Use a convection oven/setting
Make banana bread
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Make the bread great again
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Bake for 15 more minutes
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add caffeine to the bread
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
89
85
80
78
78
75
75
73
72
71
69
66
64
62
62
60
60
59
59
57
57
55
55
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
46
46
45
45
43
43
43
43
42
42
41
40
40
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
29
28
27
27
26
26
26
21
20
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
15
15
14
14
13
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Jensen Huang
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Nicholas Carlini
Dean Ball
Demis Hassabis
Alec Radford
Yann LeCun
Tyler Cowen
Dean Spears
Jack Clark
Amanda Askell
Sarah Paine
François Chollet
Joscha Bach
Tamay Besiroglu
Daniel Kokotajlo
Ian Morris
Sundar Pichai
Satya Nadella
Michael Dell
roon
Mira Murati
Paul J Werbos
Holden Karnofsky
Gary Marcus
Matt Levine
George Hotz
Ajeya Cotra
Joe Carlsmith
Noam Brown
Hans Moravec
Nate Soares
Doris Taylor
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ilya Sutskever
Scott Alexander
Carl Shulman
Joe Henrich
Zvi Mowshowitz
Michael Levin
Helen Toner
Bill Gates
Mustafa Suleyman
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Nick Bostrom
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Andrej Karpathy
Janus @repligate
Tanner Greer
Mark Zuckerberg
Dan Hendrycks
David Reich
Barack Obama
Robert Caro
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Bill Clinton
100
100
100
50
50
41
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
29
26
26
25
25
24
23
23
22
22
22
20
20
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
9
8
8
7
6
6
OptionProbability
Other
Geoffrey Hinton
Ilya Sutskever
Noam Shazeer
Alan Turing
Daniel Hillis
Alec Radford
Ben Goertzle
Andrej Karpathy
Yann LeCun
Demis Hassabis
Paul Christiano
Charles Babbage
Yoshua Bengio
Jürgen Schmidhuber
John Schulman
Noam Brown
Liang Wenfeng
Alex Krizhevsky
Donald Knuth
George Boole
Kaiming He
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Marvin Minsky
Judea Pearl
Raymond Solomonoff
Andrew Ng
Fei-Fei Li
Dario Amodei
David Silver
@jim
23
18
11
8
5
5
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Mochi
Jack
prismatic
Chad
Ben S
Sad
Cory
Simon
violet
Limerick Ostrich
Shane Bo
Evan
archvenison
MachiNi
Teapot in Sagittarius
Tripping
Daniel Tello
Plant
Chris
Travis
Ten Shino
Wobert
Christopher Randles
Lee Bousfield
Jesse
Zeolite
Tyler
Anonymous
54
7
7
5
5
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
Ben Goertzel
Krantz Hanzinpantz
Daniel Hillis
Doug Lenat
Paul Christiano
John Wentworth
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Janus
Alex Turner
Evan Hubinger
davidad
Buck Shlegeris
Vanessa Kosoy
Jan Leike
Ilya Sutskever
Yann LeCun
61
5
5
5
5
4
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title
Dommaraju Gukesh
Javokhir Sindarov
Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş
R Praggnanandhaa
Alireza Firouzja
Fabi
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Hikaru Nakamura
Giri
Wesley So
A woman
Daniel Naroditsky
100
100
59
34
31
25
18
12
11
11
8
6
0
OptionProbability
María Corina Machado
Alexei Kitaev
Robin Hanson
Donald Trump
Jamie Joyce
Daniel Sheehan
Daniel Hillis
John Preskill
Jared Kushner
Balaji Srinivasan
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Elon Musk
Jack Dorsey
Robert Kennedy Jr.
@Krantz
99
84
50
47
34
29
26
26
10
8
7
6
6
3
0
OptionProbability
Nicușor Dan (Indep.)
Other
George Simion (AUR)
Călin Georgescu (Indep.)
Ilie Bolojan (PNL)
Victor Ponta (Indep.)
Diana Soșoacă (SOS)
George Becali (Indep.)
Sorin Grindeanu (PSD)
Anamaria Gavrilă (POT)
Elena Lasconi (USR)
Daniel Băluță (PSD)
Marius Lulea (AUR)
Dominic Fritz (USR)
Kelemen Hunor (UDMR)
Election cancelled/annulled
48
14
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Other
Radhika Jones
Emily Greenhouse
Patrick Radden Keefe
Daniel Zalewski
Nick Thompson
Ezra Klein
21
13
13
13
13
13
11

