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Daniels, Burrow Trade Early Scores in Bengals-Commanders Preseason Test
Authors
10
4 months ago
Prediction markets for Daniels
Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?
Nov 6, 7:45 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM
87.24%chance
95249
OptionVotes
2615
382
Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?
May 27, 9:26 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
82.42%chance
213066
OptionVotes
2165
462
OptionVotes
2050
488
Will Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?
Oct 14, 10:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
8.29%chance
102950
OptionVotes
3326
301
Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?
Nov 6, 7:11 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM
86.85%chance
72394
OptionVotes
2570
389
Will "Daniel Kahneman has died" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Mar 27, 10:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
2.59%chance
5662
OptionVotes
768
169
Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?
Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
36.99%chance
8525
OptionVotes
1283
975
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.99%chance
13210
OptionVotes
1053
971
OptionProbability
218
11
OptionVotes
171
58
OptionVotes
154
65
OptionVotes
71
68
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