Dar News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Dar
OptionProbability
2790
1999
OptionVotes
1425
840
By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM
67.19%chance
384159
OptionVotes
1552
520
Will a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?
Jun 16, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM
67.74%chance
362720
OptionVotes
977
952
Will Australia-Asia Power Link deliver 900 megawatts of electricity to Darwin by 2030?
Aug 23, 9:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
13.75%chance
31505
OptionVotes
2505
399
Will Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?
Feb 19, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.6%chance
18973
OptionVotes
1322
756
Will Tomonori Totoni's claim of dark matter detection be broadly accepted before 2030?
Nov 27, 7:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.64%chance
4903
OptionVotes
1903
525
OptionVotes
1077
953
Will Darien Village at Próspera be officially completed by EOY 2027?
Sep 18, 10:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.34%chance
8262
OptionVotes
1143
875
Will Dario Amodei Say Anthropic Has a “Genius in a datacenter” before April 2027?
Nov 5, 10:37 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
45.35%chance
4122
OptionVotes
1098
911
If I ever debate Darth Dawkins, will I 'win' by Manifold's judgement?
Feb 14, 2:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
68.74%chance
1185
OptionVotes
1007
988
Will Dar es Salaam, Tanzania have a Metro System before 2030?
Mar 20, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.62%chance
240
OptionVotes
121
83