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Top stories

Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing

Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing

Authors

19

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Don

Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?

Mar 19, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.84%chance

663950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1489

644

Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?

Dec 20, 6:52 PMDec 21, 6:50 PM

52.83%chance

142036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.98%chance

251693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

789

Will the Don't Build It March happen by EOY 2026?

Nov 18, 4:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.16%chance

10675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

657

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.97%chance

19653

OptionVotes

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985

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Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Will "Bad Problems Don't Stop Being Bad Because Som..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 9, 4:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17%chance

133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

821

Will "The World Keeps Getting Saved and You Don’t N..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

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NO

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1010

941

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

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14.17%chance

12

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1002

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Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

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NO

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Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Australia
Crime
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Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing
Authors
19
10 months ago

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