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Top stories

Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing

Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing

Authors

19

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Don

Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?

Mar 19, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.99%chance

663830

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1338

708

Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.98%chance

251693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

789

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.48%chance

18623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

965

Will the Don't Build It March happen by EOY 2026?

Nov 18, 4:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.65%chance

7287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

811

Will "Loving a world you don’t trust" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 10:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

39.26%chance

4270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

305

Will "You don't know how bad most things are nor pr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 5, 7:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.77%chance

253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

740

Will "Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 3:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.97%chance

111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

935

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Why I don't believe in the placebo effect" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 12:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Australia
Crime
Culture
Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing
Authors
19
3 months ago

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