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Prediction markets for Don
Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?
Mar 19, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61.84%chance
663950
OptionVotes
1489
644
Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?
Dec 20, 6:52 PMDec 21, 6:50 PM
52.83%chance
142036
OptionVotes
1058
945
Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?
Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.98%chance
251693
OptionVotes
1415
789
OptionVotes
1522
657
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.97%chance
19653
OptionVotes
985
984
Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?
Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM
56.9%chance
6341
OptionVotes
1149
870
Will "Bad Problems Don't Stop Being Bad Because Som..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 9, 4:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
17%chance
133
OptionVotes
1033
821
Will "The World Keeps Getting Saved and You Don’t N..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 17, 4:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 13, 11:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.17%chance
12
OptionVotes
1002
988
Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000