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Prediction markets for Don
Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?
Mar 19, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
56.99%chance
663830
OptionVotes
1338
708
Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?
Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.98%chance
251693
OptionVotes
1415
789
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.48%chance
18623
OptionVotes
991
965
OptionVotes
1234
811
Will "Loving a world you don’t trust" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 22, 10:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
39.26%chance
4270
OptionVotes
1213
305
Will "You don't know how bad most things are nor pr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Aug 5, 7:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.77%chance
253
OptionVotes
1050
740
Will "Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 13, 3:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 18, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.97%chance
111
OptionVotes
1011
935
Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Why I don't believe in the placebo effect" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 11, 12:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000