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El Chalamán News

    Prediction markets for El Chalamán

    Which team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup?

    Jul 25, 10:29 AMSep 30, 11:34 PM
    52238895

    OptionProbability

    Spain

    France

    Portugal

    Argentina

    England

    Brazil

    Germany

    Egypt

    Ecuador

    Italy

    Netherlands

    Colombia

    Uruguay

    Belgium

    Japan

    Norway

    Denmark

    Morocco

    Croatia

    Switzerland

    USA

    Senegal

    Austria

    Algeria

    Greece

    Republic of Ireland

    Mexico

    Nigeria

    Turkiye

    Australia

    Canada

    Sweden

    Wales

    Hungary

    Peru

    Finland

    Iran

    Cote d'Ivoire

    Ukraine

    Paraguay

    Russia

    Poland

    Serbia

    Congo DR

    Scotland

    Cameroon

    Panama

    Slovakia

    Venezuela

    Czechia

    Chile

    Costa Rica

    Romania

    Mali

    South Africa

    Slovenia

    Saudi Arabia

    Qatar

    Uzbekistan

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Burkina Faso

    Iraq

    Cabo Verde

    Ghana

    Honduras

    Albania

    United Arab Emirates

    North Macedonia

    Northern Ireland

    Jamaica

    Georgia

    Jordan

    Iceland

    Israel

    Bolivia

    Kosovo

    Oman

    Montenegro

    Guinea

    Curacao

    Syria

    Gabon

    Bulgaria

    New Zealand

    Angola

    Haiti

    Uganda

    China PR

    Bahrain

    Benin

    Thailand

    Palestine

    Belarus

    Guatemala

    Luxembourg

    Vietnam

    El Salvador

    Tajikistan

    Trinidad and Tobago

    Mozambique

    Korea Republic

    DPR Korea

    Zambia

    Madagascar

    Armenia

    Kenya

    Tanzania

    Niger

    Indonesia

    Namibia

    Cyprus

    Faroe Islands

    Estonia

    Nicaragua

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    India

    Liberia

    Turkmenistan

    Dominican Republic

    Singapore

    Lithuania

    Hong Kong

    Afghanistan

    Chinese Taipei

    Bangladesh

    Mongolia

    Pakistan

    Liechtenstein

    Laos

    Chad

    Barbados

    Nepal

    Cambodia

    Andorra

    Cuba

    Moldova

    Ethiopia

    Latvia

    Kuwait

    Zimbabwe

    Rwanda

    Azerbaijan

    Suriname

    Sierra Leone

    Togo

    The Gambia

    Lebanon

    Libya

    Comoros

    Kyrgyz Republic

    Equatorial Guinea

    Kazakhstan

    Mauritania

    Sudan

    Malawi

    Guinea-Bissau

    Central African Republic

    Burundi

    Yemen

    Lesotho

    Botswana

    Guyana

    New Caledonia

    Solomon Islands

    Fiji

    Tahiti

    Myanmar

    Vanuatu

    Malta

    Grenada

    Eswatini

    Bermuda

    Papua New Guinea

    South Sudan

    Belize

    Aruba

    Bhutan

    Macau

    Brunei

    Djibouti

    Somalia

    Tonga

    Guam

    Timor-Leste

    Gibraltar

    Seychelles

    Bahamas

    San Marino

    Anguilla

    Cayman Islands

    Sao Tome and Principe

    Sri Lanka

    Dominica

    Montserrat

    Maldives

    St. Lucia

    Antigua and Barbuda

    Puerto Rico

    St. Kitts and Nevis

    19

    19

    10

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Which teams will qualify for the 2030 FIFA World Cup?

    Jul 28, 5:23 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
    4836860

    OptionProbability

    France

    England

    Brazil

    Germany

    Japan

    Netherlands

    Sweden

    Belgium

    USA

    Croatia

    Mexico

    Italy

    Australia

    Colombia

    Norway

    South Africa

    Korea Republic

    Switzerland

    Iran

    Chile

    Saudi Arabia

    Ghana

    Egypt

    Turkiye

    Senegal

    Canada

    Cote d'Ivoire

    Ecuador

    Algeria

    Qatar

    Scotland

    Panama

    Costa Rica

    New Zealand

    Nigeria

    Tunisia

    Cameroon

    Venezuela

    Denmark

    Ukraine

    Poland

    Serbia

    Congo DR

    Greece

    Czechia

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Iraq

    Jamaica

    Dominican Republic

    Hungary

    Austria

    Curacao

    Slovakia

    Slovenia

    Jordan

    Republic of Ireland

    Uzbekistan

    Honduras

    Georgia

    Wales

    Peru

    Bolivia

    Russia

    Congo

    Cabo Verde

    Albania

    Kosovo

    Guinea

    Syria

    Bulgaria

    Belarus

    El Salvador

    Vanuatu

    Puerto Rico

    Cuba

    Thailand

    Iceland

    China

    DPR Korea

    Afghanistan

    Sudan

    Rwanda

    India

    Liberia

    Bahamas

    Haiti

    Finland

    Libya

    Estonia

    Singapore

    Romania

    South Sudan

    Chinese Taipei

    Myanmar

    Nepal

    North Macedonia

    Northern Ireland

    Oman

    Israel

    Montenegro

    Gabon

    Uganda

    Bahrain

    Guatemala

    Vietnam

    Tajikistan

    United Arab Emirates

    Luxembourg

    Equatorial Guinea

    Kyrgyz Republic

    Comoros

    Kenya

    Kazakhstan

    Mauritania

    Niger

    The Gambia

    Indonesia

    Namibia

    Sierra Leone

    Suriname

    Azerbaijan

    Malawi

    Zimbabwe

    Nicaragua

    Guinea-Bissau

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    Latvia

    Central African Republic

    Burundi

    Lesotho

    Guyana

    Eswatini

    St. Lucia

    Cambodia

    Barbados

    Bangladesh

    Dominica

    Sao Tome and Principe

    Djibouti

    Pakistan

    Burkina Faso

    Armenia

    Moldova

    Malta

    Andorra

    Maldives

    Chad

    Eritrea

    Cook Islands

    Sri Lanka

    Bhutan

    Brunei

    Somalia

    Guam

    Solomon Islands

    Mali

    Angola

    Zambia

    Benin

    Mozambique

    Fiji

    Papua New Guinea

    Tanzania

    Lebanon

    Togo

    Turkmenistan

    Ethiopia

    Yemen

    Botswana

    Lithuania

    St. Kitts and Nevis

    Hong Kong

    Antigua and Barbuda

    Mauritius

    Belize

    Mongolia

    Cayman Islands

    Seychelles

    Cyprus

    Macau

    Kuwait

    Trinidad and Tobago

    Madagascar

    Liechtenstein

    Palestine

    Grenada

    San Marino

    New Caledonia

    Faroe Islands

    Tahiti

    Bermuda

    St. Vincent / Grenadines

    Montserrat

    Laos

    Samoa

    Aruba

    American Samoa

    Tonga

    Timor-Leste

    97

    96

    96

    96

    95

    94

    91

    90

    90

    89

    87

    86

    86

    85

    85

    85

    84

    83

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    80

    80

    78

    76

    75

    72

    71

    70

    66

    66

    60

    60

    60

    59

    58

    55

    54

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    47

    46

    46

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    30

    28

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    25

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    17

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    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    11

    11

    9

    8

    8

    7

    5

    5

    4

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Which US Senators and Candidates will win?

    May 15, 7:57 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM
    6315258

    OptionProbability

    Jon Ossoff - 2026 Georgia

    Roy Cooper - 2026 North Carolina

    Ed Markey - 2026 Massachusetts

    Ashley Moody - 2026 Florida

    Mike Lee - 2028 Utah

    Mary Peltola - 2026 Alaska

    Abdul El Sayed - 2026 Michigan

    Sherrod Brown - 2026 Ohio

    James Talarico - 2026 Texas

    Josh Turek - 2026 Iowa

    Chuck Grassley - 2028 Iowa

    Bernie Sanders - 2030 Vermont

    Dan Osborn - 2026 Nebraska

    Chuck Schumer - 2028 New York

    John Fetterman - 2028 Pennsylvania

    Graham Platner - 2026 Maine

    Lindsey Graham - 2026 South Carolina

    89

    86

    86

    82

    68

    64

    58

    57

    48

    47

    33

    32

    32

    30

    10

    1

    0

    Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

    Jul 28, 1:15 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM
    60.93%chance
    497310

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    10266

    9534

    Which Bernie Sanders endorsees will win their 2026 primaries?

    May 1, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    257257

    OptionProbability

    Graham Platner (ME)

    Randy Villegas (CA-22)

    Sam Forstag (MT-01)

    Claire Valdez (NY-07)

    Brad Lander (NY-10)

    Brian Poindexter (OH-07)

    Bob Brooks (PA-07)

    Adam Hamawy (NJ-12)

    Val Hoyle (OR-04)

    Analilia Mejia (NJ-11)

    Melat Kiros (CO-01)

    Abdul El-Sayed (MI)

    William Lawrence (MI-07)

    Donovan McKinney (MI-13)

    Rebecca Cooke (WI-03)

    Justin Pearson (TN-09)

    Peggy Flanagan (MN)

    Cori Bush (MO-01)

    Troy Jackson (ME)

    Trey Martin (OK-05)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    99

    96

    91

    89

    83

    1

    0

    0

    Which of these proposed crossings (bridge, tunnel or a combination) will be open by the end of 2050?

    Jan 1, 11:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    92065

    OptionProbability

    Italian mainland to Sicily (Strait of Messina)

    Scottish mainland to Orkney

    Bohai Strait crossing, China

    Chinese mainland to Hainan (Qiongzhou Strait)

    Suðuroy to Sandoy, Faroe Islands

    Great Britain to the Isle of Wight

    Egypt to Saudi Arabia

    Russian mainland to Sakhalin

    Finland to Estonia

    India to Sri Lanka (Palk Strait)

    North Island to South Island, New Zealand (Cook Strait)

    Sakhalin to Hokkaido

    Java to Sumatra, Indonesia (Sunda Strait)

    Morocco to Spain/Gibraltar (Strait of Gibraltar)

    Great Britain to Ireland (Irish Sea)

    Great Britain to the Isle of Man

    Yemen to Dijbouti/Eritrea (Bab-el-Mandeb)

    Japan to South Korea

    Peninsular Malaysia to Sumatra (Malacca Strait)

    Sicily to Tunisia (Strait of Sicily)

    Russia to Alaska (Bering Strait)

    Chinese mainland to Taiwan (Taiwan Strait)

    73

    69

    69

    69

    69

    63

    63

    59

    59

    51

    50

    39

    31

    26

    25

    20

    20

    20

    20

    14

    12

    3

    🗺️Which countries will Trump visit in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

    Apr 17, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    241663

    OptionProbability

    France

    China (mainland)

    Turkey

    usa

    UK

    Saudi Arabia

    Israel

    Any south american or central american country besides Mexico

    Japan

    India

    germany

    Argentina

    South Korea

    mexico

    Canada

    Qatar

    The Netherlands

    Spain

    norway

    Poland

    Ukraine

    Russia

    Brazil

    North Korea

    El Salvador

    South Africa

    Djbouti

    Taiwan

    100

    100

    91

    82

    65

    63

    51

    51

    50

    50

    46

    40

    34

    33

    32

    31

    26

    24

    24

    23

    21

    17

    16

    15

    15

    13

    9

    9

    What will be the first ten countries to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

    Feb 18, 6:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    401537

    OptionProbability

    China

    Singapore

    South Korea

    Japan

    Israel

    UAE

    Thailand

    USA

    Taiwan

    Mexico

    Canada

    Denmark

    Estonia

    Germany

    Saudi Arabia

    El Salvador

    India

    France

    Brazil

    UK

    87

    70

    69

    66

    62

    56

    52

    51

    50

    50

    48

    47

    45

    45

    43

    40

    39

    35

    28

    17

    Everything is Commensurable, the perpetual stock multimarket

    Mar 18, 3:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    15805

    OptionProbability

    Inventing a meat substitute that replaces $1B/year of meat production

    Locking up every gang tattoo haver in El Salvador to reduce homicide rate from 100 to 2.4

    Finding a gusher that produces 10 million barrels of oil over 10 years

    Having at least one child

    Inventing a way to make your factory 10% more efficient and then firing 10% of its workforce (100 workers).

    repealing occupational licensing for haircuts in city of 100,000 people

    Becoming vegan for one year

    the average act of consensual sex

    donating $10 to GiveWell

    Spending $10 million on a yacht instead of investing it in SPY

    Donating $10 to an average political campaign in the US

    the average homicide

    The average rape

    Requiring US doctors to get an unrelated bachelor's degree before starting medical school for no reason

    Delaying the covid vaccine approval by a month for no reason

    80

    73

    68

    67

    65

    64

    58

    51

    50

    46

    40

    32

    30

    30

    19

    Which of the following will be true by 2030? (Nayib Bukele Questions)

    Oct 1, 10:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    5676

    OptionProbability

    Still president of El Salvador

    Nearly Successful Assassination Attempt

    Assassinated

    Dead

    60

    53

    20

    20

    What will be the first country to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

    Feb 18, 6:42 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    16408

    OptionProbability

    Other

    China

    USA

    Singapore

    Israel

    Estonia

    Denmark

    India

    UK

    Japan

    UAE

    El Salvador

    34

    28

    9

    7

    6

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Highest incarceration rate in the world at the end of 2027

    Aug 8, 2:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    881

    OptionProbability

    El Salvador

    Cuba

    Rwanda

    Other

    70

    10

    10

    10

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