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Prediction markets for Emmanuel Macron
Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?
Mar 12, 3:27 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM
19886534
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
83
73
70
69
69
68
61
59
58
55
55
54
54
51
50
49
48
46
44
43
39
37
36
35
34
34
34
33
31
28
25
25
23
23
21
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21
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19
18
18
17
16
15
12
12
12
12
11
9
9
8
8
7
6
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
33
29
8
6
4
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
34
30
9
5
5
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM
1.83%chance
9534412
OptionVotes
7356
561
Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?
Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
3.01%chance
334958
OptionVotes
3199
836
Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?
May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
11.62%chance
243987
OptionVotes
1279
930
Who would be Dwarkesh’s “biggest guest yet” if they were interviewed?
Feb 20, 4:15 PMNov 8, 11:59 PM
123329
OptionProbability
91
28
16
15
10
Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?
Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM
4.49%chance
233209
OptionVotes
2667
331
Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
14.39%chance
16941
OptionVotes
508
161
Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM
5.15%chance
8470
OptionVotes
429
23
OptionProbability
210
209
Will Michael Trazzi and Emmanuel Macron get to meet by EOY2028?
Feb 17, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
21.61%chance
5121
OptionVotes
190
53
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