Erik Thedéen News
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Riksbank Holds at 2% as Bostic Still Expects One 2025 Fed Cut
Authors
19
14 hours ago
Prediction markets for Erik Thedéen
Which of the following players will win at least 1 WSOP bracelet between 2025 and 2030 (inclusive)?
Jun 3, 1:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22915
OptionProbability
100
100
100
69
69
59
59
55
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
31
OptionProbability
26
6
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will AR/VR headset use be ubiquitous on commercial airlines by 2030?
Feb 3, 8:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
35.18%chance
312018
OptionVotes
1391
683
Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045
Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
58.21%chance
18617
OptionVotes
1034
937
Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
64%chance
16307
OptionVotes
1060
959
Will Erik Voorhees (founder of ShapeShift exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 18, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.57%chance
6269
OptionVotes
326
104
Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?
May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM
2240
OptionProbability
37
37
28
28
22
Will Econ 102 with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg reach episode 100?
Feb 29, 2:19 PMMay 5, 2:29 PM
89.4%chance
2230
OptionVotes
347
45
OptionVotes
1145
1067
Will William Eden's kids get proper aristocratic tutoring sourced in part by Erik Hoel?
Sep 21, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20%chance
150
OptionVotes
120
45
Will the Hermeus Quarterhorse Mk 2 test vehicle achieve autonomous supersonic flight?
Mar 30, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.25%chance
232
OptionVotes
135
116
Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet?
Sep 21, 8:41 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
57.63%chance
230
OptionVotes
94
86