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Erik Thedéen News

    Prediction markets for Erik Thedéen

    Who will win the NY-12 Congressional District (add answers!)

    Sep 6, 7:12 PMNov 6, 11:59 PM
    4016045

    OptionProbability

    Micah Lasher

    Alex Bores

    Jack Schlossberg

    Liam Elkind

    Erik Bottcher

    Keith Powers

    George Conway

    Cameron Kasky

    58

    34

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    Which of the following players will win at least 1 WSOP bracelet between 2025 and 2030 (inclusive)?

    Jun 3, 1:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    32925

    OptionProbability

    Nick Schulman

    Shaun Deeb

    Martin Kabrhel

    Jeremy Ausmus

    Phil Hellmuth

    Josh Arieh

    Alex Foxen

    Daniel Negreanu

    Stephen Chidwick

    Justin Saliba

    Chance Kornuth

    Scott Seiver

    Phil Ivey

    Michael Moncek

    Alex Livingston

    Chris Brewer

    Nacho Barbero

    Eric Wasserson

    Ren Lin

    Matt Glantz

    Fedor Holz

    Ben Heath

    Joe Cada

    Koray Aldemir

    Dario Sammartino

    Ben Lamb

    Nick Petrangelo

    Isaac Haxton

    Erik Seidel

    Jonathan Tamayo

    100

    100

    100

    69

    65

    59

    59

    55

    55

    55

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    31

    Will AR/VR headset use be ubiquitous on commercial airlines by 2030?

    Feb 3, 8:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    20.33%chance
    312618

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1991

    460

    Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

    Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    58.63%chance
    19627

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1026

    947

    🏅2026 NASCAR Head-to-Head (H2H) Driver Markets (LIVE)

    Jan 22, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    2364

    OptionProbability

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chris Buescher OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will William Byron OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Joey Logano?

    03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

    03/01 (Austin) - Will Shane van Gisbergen OUT FINISH A. J. Allmendinger?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ryan Preece OUT FINISH Christopher Bell?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Ross Chastain OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Noah Gragson OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Chase Briscoe)?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Joey Logano) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Kyle Larson)?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' ?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' ?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' ?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Corey LaJoie)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (John Hunter Nemechek) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Brad Keselowski)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (William Byron)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Cole Custer) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Cody Ware)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' (AJ Allmendinger) OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' (Ross Chastain)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' (Shane van Gisbergen) OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' (Daniel Suarez)?

    02/22 (Autotrader 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/22 (Darlington) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Joey Logano?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase ElliottOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Brad Keselowski??

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?

    03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will Denny Hamlin OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will DWilliam Byron OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    05/31 (Nashville) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    06/14 (Pocono) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    11/08 (Miami) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    06/21 (Coronado) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    06/21 (Coronado) - Will Shane van Gisbergen OUT FINISH Carson Hocevar?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Chris Buescher?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Tyler Reddick?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Joey Logano?

    03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH William Byron?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Bubba Wallace OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Austin Cindric OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ty Gibbs OUT FINISH Chase Briscoe?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Christopher Bell OUT FINISH Denny Hamlin?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' ?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' ?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' ?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Ryan Preece)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Corey Heim) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Alex Bowman)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Chris Buescher) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Joey Logano)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' (Jimmie Johnson) OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' (Bubba Watson)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Chase Briscoe) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Denny Hamlin)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Kyle Larson) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 11 Inside' (Chandler Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 11 Outside' (Casey Mears)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ty Gibbs) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Christopher Bell)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Justin Allgaier) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Austin Cindric)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (Zane Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Michael McDowell)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Connor Zilisch) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (Erik Jones)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Josh Berry) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

    11/08 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    03/01 (COTA) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Blaney OUT FINISH Reddick?

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    50

    50

    50

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

    Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    64%chance
    16307

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1060

    959

    Will Erik Voorhees (founder of ShapeShift exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

    Jan 18, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    9.57%chance
    6269

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    326

    104

    Will Econ 102 with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg reach episode 100?

    Feb 29, 2:19 PMMay 5, 2:29 PM
    89.4%chance
    2230

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    347

    45

    Will William Eden's kids get proper aristocratic tutoring sourced in part by Erik Hoel?

    Sep 21, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    20%chance
    150

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    120

    45

    Who will win a seat on the Mountain View City Council in November 2026?

    May 17, 12:03 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM
    444

    OptionProbability

    Silja Paymer

    Robert Cox

    Erik Poicon

    Alexander Amoroso

    IdaRose Sylvester

    Paul Donahue

    54

    52

    52

    52

    50

    50

    When will Delta Airlines provide inflight wifi with less than 50ms of latency?

    Mar 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
    140

    OptionProbability

    2036

    2029

    2030

    2031

    2032

    2033

    2034

    2035

    2026

    2027

    2028

    20

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet?

    Sep 21, 8:41 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
    57.63%chance
    230

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    94

    86

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