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Prediction markets for Fields
Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?
Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
7.82%chance
1029138455
OptionVotes
344298
43497
OptionProbability
25
21
12
7
7
7
7
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?
Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.44%chance
3511655
OptionVotes
8352
653
OptionProbability
22
22
17
15
13
5
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field
Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM
18.11%chance
11836
OptionVotes
1104
960
Which language families will be widely academically recognized in the field of linguistics, by EOY 2035?
Apr 3, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12500
OptionProbability
88
80
56
54
41
40
34
27
25
6
Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?
May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
89.12%chance
16385
OptionVotes
1246
943
Will "Fields that I reference when thinking about A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Aug 16, 5:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.74%chance
2300
OptionVotes
1297
958
Which fully autonomous system will be first to replace a tenth of the humans in its field?
Jan 7, 6:39 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM
6158
OptionProbability
57
20
12
11
Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?
May 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
81.89%chance
595
OptionVotes
225
91
Will healthcare and telemedicine be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?
May 8, 6:02 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
51.43%chance
34
OptionVotes
72
68
Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?
Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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