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Prediction markets for Greenblatt

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

6556376

OptionProbability

01/01/2030

01/01/2028

01/01/2026

01/01/2025

95

92

87

0

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

226246

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

97

95

92

87

63

0

0

Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?

Apr 26, 5:22 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

72.86%chance

182894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

416

Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?

Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

19.75%chance

131499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2016

496

Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?

Sep 7, 11:13 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

12.36%chance

10955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

679

191

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?

Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

70.37%chance

11370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

272

94

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?

Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

48.72%chance

11233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

110

Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?

Apr 26, 5:23 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

52.96%chance

8202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

110

Next Entain CEO

May 6, 12:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

166

OptionProbability

Richard Flint

Stella David

Other

Adam Greenblatt

Dominic Grounsell

Andreas Meinrad

Rob Wood

William Hornbuckle

Johnny Hartnett

Jonathan Halkyard

20

18

16

9

9

7

6

6

6

5

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