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Prediction markets for Greenblatt
By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?
Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM
6556376
OptionProbability
95
92
87
0
OptionProbability
97
95
92
87
63
0
0
OptionVotes
2261
276
Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?
Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM
19.75%chance
131499
OptionVotes
2016
496
Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Sep 7, 11:13 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM
12.36%chance
10955
OptionVotes
679
191
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?
Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM
66.39%chance
12380
OptionVotes
250
104
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?
Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM
48.72%chance
11233
OptionVotes
205
110
OptionVotes
212
110
OptionProbability
20
18
16
9
9
7
6
6
6
5
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