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Prediction markets for Greenblatt
OptionProbability
97
96
92
88
0
0
0
Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Sep 7, 11:13 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM
1.94%chance
114000
OptionVotes
2515
99
Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?
Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM
19.75%chance
131499
OptionVotes
2016
496
OptionVotes
302
60
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?
Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM
48.72%chance
11233
OptionVotes
205
110
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