OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Andrew Tate
Dylan Klebold
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
Josh Hawley
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Cersei Lannister
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Trump's attempted assassin
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Roko
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Jozef Tiso
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Thomas Midgley Jr.
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
A cockroach
Niko Bellic
Commodus
Tito
an asi agent from openai
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Vriska Serket
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Yuan Shu
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Paul Von Hindenburg
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Hunter Biden's laptop
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
JD Vance
Karl Marx
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
Mehmed V
Klaus Schwab
Sean Hannity
Rochelle Shen
Black Hat (XKCD)
King George III of England
Ada Nguyen
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Salvador Allende
Rorschach
Wario
A literal ham sandwich
goth600
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
Neville Chamberlain
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Emperor Ling of Han
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
Lex Luthor
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Bad Bunny
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
Eren Yeager
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
Stan Smith
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Justin Trudeau
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Santa Claus
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
@strutheo :)
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
95
94
92
92
92
91
91
90
89
88
88
87
85
84
84
84
82
81
81
76
74
74
73
72
71
69
69
68
67
66
66
65
61
61
60
59
58
55
55
54
50
50
50
50
47
45
45
45
44
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
42
42
41
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
39
39
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
37
37
36
35
35
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
32
32
32
32
31
30
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
10
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Other
Jensen Huang
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Larry Ellison
Bernard Arnault
Donald Trump
Mark Zuckerberg
Satoshi Nakamoto
Vladimir Putin
Vitalik Buterin
Michael Saylor
Bill Gates
Larry Page
Warren Buffett
me
Steve Ballmer
Gautam Adani
Mukesh Ambani
An AGI
Brian Armstrong
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao
Tim Draper
Jack Dorsey
Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron
@Mira
Sergey Brin
Michael Dell
Amancio Ortega
Carlos Slim Helu
Eric Schmidt
Masayoshi Son
Dave Tepper
Ken Griffin
Eduardo Saverin
Morris Chang
36
29
14
9
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
5/15 - After Round 1, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/15 - After Round 1, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5-22, After Round 1 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-22, After Round 1 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Thomas?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-18, After Round 2 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Ben Griffin lead Collin Morikawa?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Collin Morikawa lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Collin Morikawa lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Thriston Lawrence?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Si Woo Kim?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Brooks Koepka?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sungjae Im?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Viktor Hovland?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Brooks Koepka?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Rory McIlroy lead Jason Day?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Ricky Fowler lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Xander Schauffele lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Xander Schauffele lead J.J. Spaun?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Austin Eckroat?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Austin Eckroat lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Wyndham Clark?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Keegan Bradley lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Keegan Bradley?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Cameron Young?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Viktor Hovland?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Nick Taylor lead Viktor Hovland?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Justin Thomas lead Collin Morikawa?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Adam Scott lead Si Woo Kim?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Justin Thomas lead Collin Morikawa?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Jason Day?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Austin Eckroat?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Nick Taylor??
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Brian Harman lead Wyndham Clark?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Harris English lead Wyndham Clark?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Chris Kirk lead Phillip Knowles?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Shane Lowry?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Jon Rahm?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Xander Schauffele lead Tommy Fleetwood?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Collin Morikawa?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Brian Harman?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Haotong Li?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Haotong Li lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Haotong Li lead Brian Harman?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Keegan Bradley?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jordan Spieth lead Ben Griffin?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Hideki Matsuyama?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Si Woo Kim lead Hideki Matsuyama?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Si Woo Kim?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Joel Dahmen lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Alex Noren lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead Aaron Rai?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Darren Zhou?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Lucas Gimenez?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Ben Lathrop?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavarria lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Chandler Phillips lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavarria lead Jordan Spieth?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Lucas Glover lead Si Woo Kim?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Lucas Glover lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jake Knapp lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jake Knapp lead Joel Dahmen?
5/15 - After Round 1, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/17- After Round 3, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/18- After Round 4, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ben Griffin?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead J. J. Spaun?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead Viktor Hovland?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Brooks Koepka lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Brooks Koepka lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead J.J. Spaun?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will J. J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Viktor Hovland?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Jordan Spieth lead Brooks Koepka?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Tony Finau lead Jason Day?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Tony Finau lead Rory McIlroy?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Ricky Fowler lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Wyndham Clark lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Cameron Young lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Jason Day?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Denny McCarthy lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Austin Eckroat lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Nick Taylor lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Brian Harman lead Harrish English?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Lucas Glover lead Rory McIlroy?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Lucas Glover lead Scottie Scheffler?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Chris Kirk lead Andrew Putnam?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Phillip Knowles lead Andrew Putnam?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Rory McIlroy?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Jon Rahm?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Bryson DeChambeau lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Xander Schauffele lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Victor Hovland lead Tommy Fleetwood?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Victor Hovland lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Aaron Rai?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Keegan Bradley lead Aaron Rai?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Ben Griffin?
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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
Blue Ghost M1
IM-2
Blue Moon MK1
Griffin Mission 1
Beresheet 2
IM-3
Starship HLS
Hakuto-R 2
100
100
20
15
10
2
1
0
OptionProbability
YES
NO
444
53
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2093
825
OptionVotes
YES
NO
501
50
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1295
735
OptionVotes
YES
NO
110
91
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1062
942
OptionVotes
YES
NO
109
92